Looking at 1Q09 earnings releases, there are a number of overarching
questions regarding several of the companies in our universe:
Canadian Oil Sands Trust: Do the distribution cuts continue? We
expect that the trust will maintain its distribution of $0.15 this quarter
but given the extended turnaround in 2Q09, the question becomes
what happens next quarter.
Although the trust is prepared to support
the distribution with debt (or the turnaround – depending on how you
look at it) – and the DRIP program relaxes the cash requirement for
the trust – the 2Q09 distribution could be tight if anything else goes off
kilter.
Suncor Energy: Will Voyageur come back to life? With the recent
announcement of a merger with Petro‐Canada the company will likely
dramatically improve its balance sheet.
The expectation is that Firebag
3 gets completed as soon as possible – but what happens to Firebag 4,
5 and 6 now remains to be seen. Do we have to wait until the merger is
complete before we get any clarity?
Connacher Oil and Gas: How is the production ramp going? How is
Algar going to be funded? The company recently decided to bring
Great Divide volumes back up and have been able to cut costs at the
project in January and February mostly as a function of increased
volumes at Great Divide.
Our main concern for this quarter is what
the netbacks will look like – our expectation is for another poor
quarter. And of course, since the $200 mln revolver was canceled
recently – how will CLL replace the facility so that Algar development
can continue?
Petro‐Canada: Now what? Since the company has agreed to merge
with Suncor, what happens with the pipeline of projects? The
company recently laid off 200 employees working on the Fort Hills
Project.
OPTI Canada: Where is production now and what is the status of the
upgrader – and what were netbacks in 1Q09? We are still expecting
constrained rates and spotty upgrader uptime – the likely result is
negative cash flow on the quarter.
Cash Flow per Share Estimates – 1Q09
CLL
RJ 1Q09 Estimate ‐$0.02
1Q09 Consensus $0.01