Welcome to the Connacher Oil and Gas Hub on AGORACOM

Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Thursday, March 15

Hi Sharky,

What make you think that the CLL take over is around the corner?

Who in your opinion will put an offer for the company which:

1.With the holiday brake on the Royalties can not make money by selling and refining oil for 2 years on the row. They pay now only 6%. Pod1 will enter post-payout 34% rate next year. This will dramatically expend corporate losses.

2. Production is on the decline and 35% below design capacity (as per Canadian Petroleum Engineers study, due to solvent recovery you need production at 90% capacity to make SADG+ economically viable option).

3. Their cash reserves dropped to $80 million in February after paying $39 million interest installment on $900 million debt. February Dil-Bit prices dropped below their TOTAL cost. March prices are lower then February average. Q1/2012 is shaping to have 20% lower bitumen prices then Q4/2011.

4. In 2011 CLL sold assets for total of $138.4million. They are now down to about $80 million cash reserves with the lower bitumen prices then in Q4. In June they need $102 million to redeem convertibles and in July to to pay another $39 million interest installment. Credit line maybe the only option.

The point is: who on earth would like to put a reasonable offer and get in to this mess?

Believe me, there are much, much better opportunity out there for someone to park $1 or $2 billion in energy sector in Alberta. The same applies to individual investors.

.

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