I enjoyed this post from SH. Of course, there's still no guarantee that anyone will buy Connacher, so I like to look past the current buyout discussions and think back to a year or so ago, when CLL often traded in the $1.40 to $1.70 range. Think about that, and then think about negative and positive developments in the interim.

The more I read these pages - the more I begin to understand the market and volitility. So - here are a few things that support my view that there are zero valid points in that post:

1) Cannacord's view? Really. Because this is somebody's interpretation of Cannacord's view. I don't see Wong actually quoted anywhere in the article. This looks like the kind of summary Stockwatch does.

2) Let's assume this is Wong's view. Who is Benny Wong. Is he an alalyst at Cannacord? No. He is a research associate. What is his story? Go to Cannacord's sitehttp://www.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/research/Pages/GlobalTeam.aspx . Nothign there. He graduated with a BComm for the University of Calgary in 2004, and looks to have have one other job before winding up at Cannaord. How has his track record been on CLL? Well I think he is the same guy that said "Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. | Benny Wong, 1.403.691.7810 CLL : TSX : C$1.05 | C$697.1M | Buy , Target C$1.70" in July 2011. He called that one didn't he? Not exactly inspiring. So why would Cannacord let Benny speak? Easy - sacrificial, and no reputation to tarnish. Listening to Benny may be the Wong thing to do.

3) Let's assume the article accurately reports Wong's "research" and honestly I'm going to give Benny the Bennyfit of the doubt and say it does not. They quote the average price of deals based on 2P resources in US dollars per bbl of 2P OVER A PERIOD 2005 to 2012. Really. They really did that? Lets look at the variables. Has the price of Oil in $US dollars varried over that period. I think it has. In Jan 2005 it was just over $US 30/bbl. In 2008 it was $130. The average over that period is somewhere around $60. We are currently at $105 - not exactly average. Has the $US-$CDN dollar exchange rate fluctauted over that period (because all deals are quoted in $US equivalent) - yup I think it has. How about production and other assets - do they factor in. Not according to this article. How about solvency of the company - does that factor into it. Nope - not according to this? Conitingent reserves? No. Existing imminent Regulatory approvals. No.

4) Let me suggest some homework for anyone on this board that thinks this article has any substance. Using the timeframe involved try this. Strip out all producing assets and debt and calculate a value based on NPV of operatiosn using GLJ forecast for oil prices. Do this for all the deals that have been done in the past. Add or subtract that amount from the deal to get what the reall value of the 2P was. Then, look at when the deal was done and calculate the value based on bbl/bbl of 2P - this gets rid of currency fluctation and oil price fluctuation. So if the price was $2/bbl of 2P at the time of the deal and Oil was $30/bbl then the deal was 0.067 bbl/bbl of 2P. To get the current value of that deal convert to current oil prices - so for the example a deal that was $2/bbl of 2P when oil was $30 would be worth 0.067 * $105 (current price of oil) = $7.03 per bbl Of course, you wouldn't use current prices, but rather avg forecast prices over the next 25-30 years adjusted for inflation - but at least then you'd be starting to get apples to apples numbers on the deals. I can assure you that this is what any potential buyer would be doing. The only variable then is your projection for the price of Oil in CY dollars over the next 25-30 years - with the nearest years having the biggest influence.

I've done this math and come up with a range of values. The worst case scenario (other than utter and complete long term collapse of civilization - which I don't rule out, but if it happens - who really cares about oil?) is $2. That is why I think someone will be willing to gladly pay $1.5 right now.

As long as CLL stays solvent - they do have significant leverage in a deal today, and based on prices over the past quarter, they are going to be solvent for the foreseeable future. The value of the oil in the ground is not going down so the longer a buyer waits, the more it will cost them