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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: CLL sesitivity to Oil price
2
Oct 07, 2011 02:23AM
2
Oct 07, 2011 10:01AM

Oct 08, 2011 03:27PM
1
Oct 10, 2011 09:37PM
1
Oct 11, 2011 10:57AM

Rebels, you don't get it. Here's an example with easy numbers to help you. Assume oil is $100 then drops to $80 and royalties are fixed at 10%. Also assume capex ect is $50/bbl.

At $100 your royalties are $10, and at $80 oil royalties are $8/bbl.

So your NETBACK is 100-10-50 = $40 for $100 oil

80-8-50 = $22 for $80 oil.

So even though your royalty expense dropped $2/bbl, you're still out the money.

I haven't cashed out but have added more to my position. I would have been smart to cover last week but I didn't think we'd see this wave of optimism in the markets. Regardless, CLL is losing money and can't exist forever so I will be patient and continue to sell shares (short the stock) when we see bumps like we did at $0.40 today.

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