The information below comes from Connacher's last presentation.

Proved and Probable Reserves (2P) (2) $3,101

Best Estimate Contingent Resources (2) $571

Land Value (3) $15

Book Value of Refinery (5) $83

Investment in Gran Tierra (legacy PDP) (4) $22

Working Capital (5) $19

Total Value $3,811

Less: Face Value of Long-Term Debt (6) ($880)

Estimated NAV $2,931

NAV per 448 million Shares Outstanding (5)

Pre-Tax NAV per Share $6.54

After-Tax NAV per Share $4.98

After-Tax 2P NAV per Share $3.71

Based on this recent presentation they estimate their pre Tax NAV at $6.54 per share. This is their best estimate of their fair market value! This means that if Connacher would go belly up, in the best case scenario, shareholders should realize $6.54 per share from the sale of the assets. This estimate does not appear to be out of line for Connacher's assets, as I calculated the net present value at 6% of their cash flow from Great Divide at about $1.50 per share, even after you discount the 880 million in debt.

Going Solo stated that Connacher “have an risked EV of less than $0.20”. I don't know his definition of “risked EV”. If he's referencing risk based net asset value, he implies that there is a 97% chance that Connacher will have 100% of its assets rendered to 0 value. In my opinion, this is highly unlikely.

Martin