Hi Ludwig

Libya has already been factored into oil prices..If the West intervenes with no- fly zones it should help stop the spread of violence into other countries allowing oil to drop down.

Also if I'm not mistaken CLL has hedges on both oil and the U.S dollar so high oil may be offset somewhat.Todays drop in SP is IMO showing me another pattern..IMO ( if the Middle east settles down) they'll drop SP to low $1.50s and let it trade sideways for a few days. This will allow shorts to cover and suck in new money who think it's a great buying opportunity at these prices..SP will then make a run up, fail to break $1.65 then crash back down to where it would have been had Khadafi not gone nuts..Then it will make the traditional run up in Apr/May prior to the summer bottom..The only thing that may have changed is I'm thinking it'll settle back down to low $1.30 as opposed to low $1.20's..

I could be wrong but this is what I'm hoping for.