2011 expansion would mean new dilution (200 million shares) or partnership, as was suggested in Jan by CLL Vice President Grant Ukrainetz.

Jurek brings up an excellent point here. Where do we go from here?

My opinion, and this is only a wild guess, is the following: if CLL knows that they need to go to market for additional equity, then they need to get the stock price back up. How to do this? The only real light on the horizon that I can think of is that the annual reserves re-evaluation report by GLJ usually comes out around the third week of July. That encompasses all winter drilling and is a snapshot as of June 30th. Two things will significantly affect the valuation of the reserves at that time, namely: (1) the price of oil on June 30th; and (2) the amount of additional 1P, 2P, and 3P reserves that can be delineated as a result of drilling since January 1st. Therefore, if I was CLL at this point, I'd be drilling like crazy, trying to expand reserves. Unfortunately, I think that this goes counter to the strategy that I believe Gusella has been employing for years, namely that of "drill just the bare minimum so we can move forward but not attract attention from the big boys who might try to buy us out prematurely based on reserves."

On a separate but related note, I actually just sold 40% of my holdings this morning. I don't get a good feeling right now from the markets. They are at a high, and can certainly go higher thanks to the massive government injections of stimulus liquidity, but I don't think the underlying value of the markets validates the levels they are at. Any number of things could be a tipping point to start sending us lower again - the ongoing Greece saga, the Goldman-Sachs story, CDO's, maybe even something as innocuous as airline problems. Algar is complete. I don't think an announcement in four weeks that we're under budget will stir the stock price. We're still half a year away from commerciality, and as we know from Pod1, things can go wrong. I still think that Connacher is a great company, but I feel that we're not going to see upward movement on the stock price until at least close to the end of June. The "sell in May and go away" mentality is also to be considered. I may regret this decision, but I think that I can probably get back into the stock at a lower point eight weeks from now. The AGM is in the interim, but historically, the AGM has never influenced the SP no matter how feel-good the presentations were.