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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Paying down debt

Paying down debt

posted on Jan 10, 2010 11:14AM

I want to follow up on the point that spiderman8 made concerning the $15 million that Connacher has allocated to prevent cost over runs and incidentals incurred during the building of Algar. Spiderman8 indicated that since Algar is currently on time and still under budget in its building program that this money could be used to pay down debt once Algar is completed. I totally agree with this. I also think that this $15 million dollars can be added to the over $10 million dollars that Connacher saved drilling the 17 well pairs for the Algar project which in total would be $25 million dollars which could be used to buy back part of the $87 million which is due on the Convertible Debentures due June 2012 @ 4.75%. Connacher management has very astutely been able to reduce this debt todate from $100 million down to $87 million dollars. Reducing this another $25 million dollars to $62 million dollars would be a good thing in my opinion. The last thing that shareholders want is this debt being converted into more shares in 2012.

Krissy09

- you referred to a number of bullets in Connacher's latest presentation in terms of Connacher's debt, but you didn't mention the bullet at the bottom of page 24 which states "Long life nature of bitumen reserves well suited to facilitate refinancing." This is important in terms of the fact that Connacher is currently drilling 70 - 80 new core holes on its lands at Great Divide and HalfWay Creek to increase its bitumen reserves when the new GLJ Reserve Report comes out this July. Dick Gusella mentioned this in the last conference call as well that Connacher's debt can be refinanced at a future date. I am not worried about this as Connacher has presently only proven up bitumen reserves on 10% of its landholdings. Once Algar production is close to its plant design capacity, I predict that Connacher at that point will start drilling a lot of core holes to rapidly expand its bitumen reserves to well over a billion bbl of bitumen. Once this is done the banks will be bending over backwards to loan Connacher more money and refinancing its existing debt based to the immense value that this collateral represents. As I have stated before, Connacher has been very smart up until now not to do what many of the other bitumen producers have done....ie... drill core holes and prove up most of its bitumen reserves before it built Pod 1 and Pod 2. Had Connacher proven up most of its reserves first, Connacher would have most likely been taken out already by a large oil company. No Connacher has kept its reserves small to date and is growing them generically as it expands for strategic reasons....ie.. to prevent Connacher from being taken over at a low share price with a lot of debt which would not be good at all for any of us shareholders.

In terms of other bitumen producers UTS currently has 474,458,261 shares oustanding as of November 13, 2009 as stated on page 18 of its Q-3 Report http://www.uts.ca/documents/reports/2009%20Q3%20Interim%20report.pdf In addition, on page 19, it states that about 20 million shares were awarded to entitled holders on November 13 which needs to be added to this UTS' total which means that UTS overall has about 500 million common shares outstanding total compared to Connacher's 442,625,006 common shares (proforma October 2009 flow through shares) stated on page 27 of Connachers presentation.

IMHO the last thing that Connacher should do is issue millions and millions of more shares to raise capital in the future and then do a reverse split. For the most part reverse splits do not work as we all know, Nortel being the last large reverse split in recent memory. I know that personally if I hear of a reverse split coming in the future that I will sell all of my Connacher shares that I have been holding since 2002, and I honestly believe that most other long term holders on this board would do the same should a reverse split come up for a vote at the annual general meeting.

Best Wishes; Scott


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