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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Fundamentals

Fundamentals

posted on Jan 09, 2010 12:36PM

I am not sure why boardmembers think the fundamentals aren't getting better.

By the new presentation it looks like they are finally getting close to averaging 8000 bbl/d. A floor of about 7000 bbl/d and a ceiling of about 9500 bbl/d. That is a positive fundamental. WTI above $75 US is a good fundamental. NG up right now for increased cash flow also good, and to add to that the NG price may fall again come spring time to keep steaming costs down, also a good fundamental. US dollar falling against the CDN dollar which brings down the debt on the balance sheet, another good fundamental. Algar proceding as planned. $10 million saved on drilling could be possibly used to buy down debt, at a discount, on the open market as they have done the past few quarters.

Negatives are the poor hedging decisions, it looks like the hedge they put on at $79.02 was done as a knee jerk reaction when prices started to go down, they could of easily had the same hedge in the mid $80's if they didn't try to hold out for the highest possible penny. The collar looks OK.

The SP may increase again after presentation as it sometimes does, then come back a bit.

As can be seen by the production on the presentation, prying eyes saw it before the general public, and that is why the SP increased before it was released. Nothing new about the prying eyes but it definately leaves a bad taste when people who have access to the info can buy or sell before the info is released and make or save money before the general public can. SEC has too much to watch to seem to bother with that.

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