Good question and I appreciate your $3.60 guess.
My best guess is that once we hit about 15,000 bbl/d it will stay fairly constant. A $10 WTI Change over an entire quarter will change the estimate by about 1 cent. A 1000 bbl/d swing will change a quarter by about 1 cent.
I think Connacher is learning, maybe the hard way, to overcome obstacles so reasonably they should hit 15,000 sometime Oct 2010. Currently they seem to hit 6500 bbl/d with ease, and 8000 with difficulty. So I made an assumption of 6500 bbl/d for Algar and another assumption that they get better at GD and hit 8500 by that time. So a 1000 bbld/ swing either way is still reasonable and means about 1 cent per share over the quarter. As far as price I think it will stay under $100, my thinking is if it goes too high the economy will continue to sputter. OPEC can also add oil to keep the price stable. A floor may be in place at about $65.
If they can hit 15,000 bbl/d, confidence in the company may be restored and we could see a PE of 8, which would bring it into line with its NAV as per page 9 of new presentation.
Improvements or problems to netbacks would effect it fairly quickly, but like I said I think CLL people have learned and should overcome problems.
Having said all that, the SP should increase to $2.00 by April, $3.00 by August and $4.00 by December. Then trade in that range until the next leg up.
PDP hopefully will start making money and the earnings from them could cover G&A.