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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Some back of napkin number crunching

Some back of napkin number crunching

posted on Aug 30, 2009 09:17AM

at $65.00 per bo = net $25.00 bo last Quarter

10,000 bod x 25 =$250,000 per day

30 days x $250,000 = $7,500,000 per month

x 3 = $22,500,000 per quarter or $90,000,000 per year

Future (at same price oil)

20,000 bod = $500,000 per day

$15,000,000 per month

$45,000,000 per quarter

$180,000,000 per year

Now oil goes to $100 bo so if Cll could net say (wild guess as will probably be more) $40 per bo

10,000 bod x 40 = $400,000 per day or $12,000,000 per month or $36,000,000 per quarter or $144,000,000 per year

20,000 bod x 40 = $800,000 per day or $24,000,000 per month or $72,000,000 per quarter or $288,000,000 per year

It should be higher with ashphalt at $100 b with oil at $65.00 and PDP value

With pod 1 and Algar identical and the other SAGD wells planned identical , things will move allong just smoothly and oil can still go back to $150.00 or $200.00 as some say.

One thing certain is oil for sure will get there as non renewable resources generally go up not down , and probably sooner than later .

If any mistakes please feel free to correct , and I was using more net bottom dollars so things to me are very rosy .

Stock seems ready to pop .

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