Good DD Scott.
Just small correction to OPTI financial situation. Their liquidity for 2009/10 is in very good shape.
2009 free cash flow estimate: CLL -$181M OPTI -$189M
2010 free cash flow estimate : CLL -$75M OPTI+$39M
OPC sold 15% their working interest in Logan Lake project (58,000 bbl/d) which dramatically improved their liquidity without increasing the debt.
Cash on hand is $280M and only $87M is drawn on the $350M line of credit. With $85M of the $114M 2009 budget is already paid. They also have estimated $87M gain on the 6.5 Mbbl/d of hedging.
IMO, at this point nobody looks at the fundamentals. Rumours is what it counts. Enjoy the ride until the music stops.