Based on the information provided by the company and in the public domain, I have attempted to estimate 2009 cash flows.
Average production will be assumed to be approx 13,000 boe/day , just slightly above current levels.
It will comprise
......9500 bo/day of bitumen of which half has been hedged at prices between $0.46 US to $49.5 US per boe. I use $40 US ,assuming the unhedged at $34 US

..........1250 bo/day of crude oil , assumed to average $50 US per barrel

........2250 boe/day of natural gas , asssumed to average $27 US per boe
ie, total average production of 13,000 boe/day for 2009

.......average downstream ( refinery) production of 9500 boe/day at a refiner margin of $8 US per boe


On the last point, refiner margins in the USA have averaged about $8 US so far this quarter, and industry pubs paint a somewhat optimistic picture for the remainder of the year. Note that the refinery secured an important U.S. government jet fuel contract and diversified and improved its margins by completing construction of its ultralow sulphur diesel (“ULSD”) project, on time and on budget. ( for reference ,CLL's refinery margins were $-2 per boe in 2008 and $15.4 per boe in 2007 )

The above information provides for an average price per boe of $39 US in 2009 .Guidance is that production operating costs will be in the $17 to $20 per boe range. I will assume the higher operating cost of $20 per boe.. to this I will add $5 per boe for royalties , leaving a net back of $14 per boe.

That is, CLL will produce about 4.5 million boe in 2009 which will generate about $63 million in cash flows.
Its refinery will add another $24 million ( 3 million boe times $8 ) in cash flow for a combined cash flow of about $85 to $90 million...or about $0. 43 /share.

The 2 most sensitive parameters are bitumen price for the 1/2 of production that is unhedged, and refiner margins.

In conclusion , the parameters used in these estimates use current data for Q1/09 and/or hedged prices.

If oil/gas prices increase for the remainder of the year, cash flows will be enhanced relative to the above estimates and vice versa if energy prices tank.

Taken at face value, they show that increased 2009 production ( a 60 % increase over 2008 ) , constrained operating costs, along with increased refinery production and margins , will enable CLL to have a very solid year whose financial metrics would be equivalent to fair value of about $2+ per share.