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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Slide 6 Summary
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Dec 31, 2008 04:03PM

Just managed to get through a few days of comments as I didn’t get the chance over the past few days and I would like to add some comments of my own.

Brian,

Sorry but I cannot wholly agree with your statement “All but Saudia Arabia and maybe Kuwait, are badly underwater at these prices. Some such as Venezuela, are deeply underwater”

The way I see it, OPEC are of course trying to stabilize and increase the oil price and several of the members have indeed indicated an oil price level at which they can break even.

I hope we are not confusing this price as the level they need for production break even. The figures given are an indication of what they need based on their capital budgets per country. In other words what they feel they need to carry on with day to day expenditure but a huge part of this is related to the vast array of their planned and existing projects for the coming year. Remember the Middle East regimes have had a budget surplus over the past few years and have plenty of cash either in the bank or in investments spread around the globe. They are not at all in trouble and if required can postpone or even cancel some of the bigger projects they have in the pipeline. On the plus side, this action of course can only be good for the future price for oil but remember the vast majority of the projects are not related to Oil and Gas so we have to keep thing in perspective.

Jurek,

Thanks again for you invaluable input regarding the postponement of ALGAR and yes I do concede that perhaps management had no other option but to take this decision. I just wonder what the trigger will be to reinitiate the construction. Obviously the bitumen price is going to be the driving factor but at what levels and what duration will be required. I agree with Brian we don’t need to get into a start/stop situation as that would be a further drain on vital resources. Will the trigger be >30 (bitumen) for one month or more I certainly don't know and I wouldn't rely on any of the analysts to come up with any predictions about where the price of oil is headed. we already know how good they are.

Bbq

I know some of those juniors look very tempting at these prices but most are still speculative and I wonder why you would be considering speculative stocks when there are so many solid, proven companies at rock bottom prices paying handsome dividends to boot. Yes I believe there is a time to gamble to try to enhance the returns of your portfolio, it is when the prospective returns of the larger companies are negligible. That was the case before and is one of the reasons I got into Connacher but it is not the case right now. If I had a surpklus of cash right now I certainly would not be speculating.

Look forward to your replies and Happy New Year to all.

Den


Jan 03, 2009 09:54PM

Jan 04, 2009 06:42AM
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