Re: Sorry - Maybe overreaction...
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 06, 2008 05:21AM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Do not consider that to be bad news, due to the contents. The only bad news is that Gusella had to release a PR like this, and that is because of a reaction to the markets as a whole, not to Connacher's performance. Deferring MRC's expansion is pretty irrelevant right now, since it is Algar's production that will really start the significant cash flowing.
The problem is that Connacher is a sound company. In that sense, it doesn't matter what the share price is right now. However, in light of management's commitment to maximize long-term value to shareholders, they have to react to market conditions.
Many people wonder why the continual growth in the short interest at CLL. Let me throw something out as food for thought: connacher shares are completely un-marginable below $2.00. The shorting institutions are probably just salivating right now, since we're getting so close to that mark. One big push below $2.00 and they're going to force a fire-sale of CLL shares, and be able to cover those fourteen or fifteen million shares under $2. After that, the stock price can rise indefinitely.
Should common retails be worried? No, not if they have the fortitude not to sell their shares (unless they are margined, in which case they better start preparing plans to cover their margins immediately).
Management owns a very significant number of shares in this company. It is possible that some of the management team have margined shares. They may be sweating too - they stand to lose millions of dollars if the price drops below $2. Hence you see a PR to try to stabilize the share price. It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks. But does Management have the resources to effectively fight the shorting problem?
Could the company possibly announce a share buy-back program with some of their excess funding, and put in a buy order for millions of shares at $2.01, to keep the price from dropping below $2.00? They have quite a bit of excess cash, but do they have enough? And could they implement a buy-back program in time? You'd better hope so if you own any margined shares. If the price drops below $2, it will be a blood-bath.
If you are wondering what to do as a retail investor, it depends on the strength of your conviction that the company is a winner. If you can find funds, put in large bids yourself at $2.01. Or if you think the market makers are going to be able to push the stock below $2, then put your bids in around $1.75.
In the end, remember that you don't lose until you sell.