Q2 and integrated model
posted on
Aug 14, 2008 09:04AM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Good and interesting posts on this board in last 2 days. Hi 5 to Brian who finally add some substance to his post: What I want to here!
Sharky and Esch. I wish I had something positive to say about interesting observation in your posts.
I think that by now every one with open mind can see the negative side of the so call integrated model promoted by CLL. In the Q2 press release they officially admitted that this promotion was push forward to get the access to US debt market.
Remember, do not look at the company presentations as the guidelines for for your investment decisions. Always look at the Financial Reports were the management is under the legal obligation to show the beef or luck of it.
In their presentation CLL is suggesting that the integrated model will add $24.4 ($11.7 from conventional O&G and $12.7 from refining margin) to its netback. For people who do not read the small print (most of us) would take this to the bank, mortgage their house and buy more CLL shares.
In reality they were selling some product (asphalt) below the cost. In last 6 months refinery added zero to CLL netbacks and anybody who is thinking or PROMOTING expansion in this sector must be crazy or has very sophisticated PR department. And yes the Montana Refinery investment did not pay by itself yet as per by management claim.
Yesterday jump in price was in sentiment with the sector which moved 4%. Some more popular energy stocks went up 7 to 10%. IMO it was short covering from the oversold condition after the weekly US oil inventory report was unexpectedly bullish.
About CLL future? I am working on the 2008 cash flow numbers. It does not look good. I notice the RBC cut the CLL target to $5.25 which effectively is putting the CLL SP in the $4 price range. It looks like 2008 Cash flow will be 40 to 45 cents per share. 40 to 50% lower then expected. 2009 will not be much better. Royalties are going up from 1% to 9% on gross revenue if the WTI stay at this level.
I wish I had some more cheerful news.
Sharky/Echs.
Spide is right with the production numbers. You can not use the 9000bbl/d numbers. So far(Q1+ Q2/2008) average production is about 4000bbl/d. Total for 2008 will be only about 6000/bbl/d.
Esch. Good luck with your house. Gee... you are a young KID and talking about retirement. Who will pay the taxes to support the government programs?