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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Long and Short

Long and Short

posted on Jun 14, 2008 09:35AM

The reality of it all is simple, if you are long, and I mean in for all the PODS it doesn't really matter if someone is holding the SP down, as a matter of fact that should benefit you as you can increase your holdings gradually as your personal cash flow allows it. If you are a shorter then go for it, sell as much as you can to get the price down and make as much as you can. Shorters don't hurt the long investor, they hurt the investor that is in it for the quick pop and the ones on tight margins. Longs again should take advantage of price decreases if they can. It will all come out in the wash. If lets say a deep pocketed company/individual has CLL as a buyout target, then keeping the price down and then offering a buyout premium over the past 60-90 days average makes sense, but they risk millions in doing so. If they short to keep it down or sell continuously a portion of their holdings to keep it down and then CLL SP rises quickly on the potential being realizes, they will lose out big time. Thats a high stakes game that I don't think is being played.

I think the price is what it is because of cautious investing. People are cautious because of the risk involved in production of all oilsands projects, cautious of Algar approval or delays in approvals, cautious of volatile energy prices, cautious of credit and money available out there, and becasue of many other options out there that keeps the money sitting on the sidelines.

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