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Message: Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change
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jurek
Jun 11, 2008 08:29AM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

diggersam
Jun 11, 2008 11:28AM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

Knotmeter
Jun 11, 2008 02:17PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

spiderman8
Jun 11, 2008 02:42PM

Knotmeter.Good observation.

$10 increase in price is related to the WTI oil price not the bitumen price. If you can go back to my post in July1 (POD1 net cash flow- see below) you can find the ratio POD1 bitumen netback to WTI oil price in 2008 is 31% according to CLL management numbers. In 2010 the ratio will drop to 17%.

Your calculation is OK just multiply your 10 cents by 31% and you will arrive with 3 cents.











Months
 WTI ($) Average
(E)= estimate
 CLL POD1 Wellhead netbac ($)
 CLL POD1 Bitumen Netback ($)
 Average POD1
production bbl/day
 CLL netback VS WTI (%)
 Net Cash flow (millions)
 Net Cash flow per share($)
 Royalties(%)
March
 102
 53
 31.4
 5200
 30
 5.1
 0.02
 1
April
 109
 56
 33,5
 7000
 31
 7
 0.03
 1
May
 120
 62
 37.5
 8000
 31
 9.3
 0.04
 1
June
 125(E)
 65
 39
 9000
 31
 10.5
 0.05
 1
Q2
 120
 62
 37.5
 8000
 31
 26.8
 0.12
 1
2008
 120(E)
 62
 37.5
 7600
 31
 100
0.45

 1
2009
 120(E)
 62
 34
 10,000
 28
 110
 0.55
 9
2010
 120(E)
 62
 20
 10,000
 17
 70
 0.32
 40

Note:
1. Net revenue= Gross revenue - diluent cost - transportation cost
2. Wellhead netbacks= net revenue/bitumen production sold
3. Bitumen netback = (net revenue -Royalties -operational cost)/bitumen production
4. Net cash flow = net revenue -Royalties -operational cost
5. Net earnings related to POD1 production will be 30 to 100% lower the net cash flow depends on depletion, depreciation and amortization rate as well as Finance charges and tax .
6.Wellhead netbacks and Bitumen netbacks are based on March numbers provided by CLL management in Q1 financial report.
7. A. 2009 Royalties are based on pre payout rate of 6%
B. 2010 Post-payout rate. POD1 cumulative 2008 and 2009 revenue will exceeds it`s cumulative costs(373 million).
8.2008 POD1 average production 7600bbl/d. Q3/4 10000/bbld and cash flow $0.15 per
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

diggersam
Jun 11, 2008 03:19PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

M14W49
Jun 11, 2008 06:52PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

jurek
Jun 11, 2008 10:50PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change
3
perrymb
Jun 12, 2008 02:57PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change
1
dbleagle1
Jun 12, 2008 05:11PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change
1
diggersam
Jun 12, 2008 05:16PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change
4
goingsolo
Jun 12, 2008 07:48PM
Re: POD1 Net Cash Flow sensitivity to WTI Oil price change

bobert
Jun 12, 2008 10:00PM
Next week

sharky
Jun 13, 2008 12:13AM
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