Re: Why Market Reacting Negatively /Q1 ernings
in response to
by
posted on
May 12, 2008 12:48PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Hi sharky.
Thanks for the reply. You pointed out to the bitumen price and related cash flow in the next coming Q's.
Encana in Q1/2008 financials sold their Bitumen from from Forster Creek for $59.57/bbl (average weighted price) . Netbacks at $40/bbl.
Netbacks are revenues end expenses related to operational cost and transportation . Cash flow in general is lower then netbacks. It will be save to assume the CLL netback at $35 to $40 per bbl.
Q1 POD1 csh flow 5M
Q2 POD1 cash flow at average 7000bbl/d $25M
Q3 POD1 cash flow at average 8000bbl/d $29M
Q4 POD1 cash flow at average 9000bbl/d $32M
Total POD1 cash flow in 2008 $90M or $0.42 per CLL share.
If you apply 8 x cash flow multiples the you will get about $3.5 per CLL share for bitumen production in 2008 and $5.3 in 2009 . Adding valu to conventional production and refinery is very difficult due to so call "integration approach" which is very fuzzy.
IMO additional $1.5 to $2 would be appropriate. This will give as the price range of :
$5 to $5.5 in 2008 and $6.8 to $7.3 in 2009.