Refinery ratio and CLL SP
posted on
Mar 19, 2008 06:08AM
This is probably also afecting the CLL SP.
Rink
Q: Refiners aren't making any money right now... Why is this a good time to buy? – M.B.
A: Yes, I believe there is an investment opportunity in refiners right now. And yes, the share prices of these companies have been killed recently, along with their earnings.
That's because the price of refined products versus the price of oil is way down. This ratio is simply the price a refiner can get for its finished product (output) versus the price it has to pay for oil (input). A low ratio means refiners aren't making a whole lot of profit.
In this table, you can see this ratio in terms of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil...
Highest Ratio Lowest Ratio Average Ratio Current Ratio
Diesel
82%
-1% 19% 33%
Gasoline
83%
-4% 24% -1%
Heating Oil
118%
-7% 17% 28%
Gas & heating oil data from 1988 to present, diesel from 1993 to present
What I'm showing you is the margin you would receive for a barrel of refined product over a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil. For example, a barrel (42 gallons) of gasoline is worth less than a barrel of WTI right now! That means refiners must find discounted, low-quality oil to make any margin at all.
As you can see, the refiners must be making up some profits on heating oil and diesel fuel. But I think the margins on gasoline, and therefore the earnings of the refiners, are about to get better.
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Analysts told Oil and Gas Investor that they expect the spot price of gasoline to hit $3.10 per gallon this summer. After transportation costs and taxes are figured in, that'll equate to $4 per gallon at the pump. If oil just moves sideways, I think steady demand from drivers will keep fuel prices high.
Given this situation and the washed out shares prices in the sector, I think we're due for a rally. However, if you speculate on refiners, mind your trailing stops because it's a volatile sector.
Good investing,
Matt Badiali