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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: CLL Shock & Awe

Feb 29, 2008 05:01AM
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Feb 29, 2008 06:33AM
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Feb 29, 2008 08:24AM
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Feb 29, 2008 09:05AM

Cagerattler:

Perhaps you are losing sight of one element existing presently with the Connacher situation. The Debenture holders and the shorts are exactly the same interests. They have struck a position where they cannot lose but with exception of catastrophic failure of Pod 1. On the one hand they are short the common and if Connacher has a problem at any point in the progress of Pod 1 they will pounce driving the SP down and covering their shorts.

If there is no problem with the build out of Pod 1, they will pick an appropriate day, like today, and cover their shorts.

Meanwhile they sit back collecting their 4 and 3/4 % on the debentures. This is as close to a "can't lose position as one can get.

If everything goes well, they win. If there is a temporary reversal, they win on the short and later likely win on their long position via their position in the debentures. If there is catastrophic failure of Pod 1, through their senior debt position, they end up with the assets. Plus getting their 4 and 3/4 % during the interim. It is literally a heads I win, tails, you lose position!

Brian


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