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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Good volume

Good volume

posted on Feb 26, 2008 11:24AM

 

As of this writing, 2,698,657 shares traded...I think we may be seeing a short covering in order to avoid a possible short squeeze that may be brewing..Let me explain.

2003-  May 2 year end report-------May 23 1st quarter report

2004-  Mar 23 year end report -----May 11 1st quarter report

2005- Mar 31 year end report------ May 10 1st quarter report

2006- Mar 31 year end report-------Apr 17 1st quarter report

2007 Mar 23 year end report ------may 7 1st quarter report

So you see gentlemen CLL has been regularly reporting year end around the end of March followed by Q1 earnings within 6 weeks.

CLL stated in one of the financials that the HIGH COST of initial steam should be offset by the hedge of Luke..Considering the higher prices they're receiving for both conventional oil and Nat gas, this should be correct.  HOWEVER if it isn't completely offset. 

Steam commenced Sept 17,,first 2 weeks appeared on 3rd quarter results period ending Sept 31. Initial steam ended Dec 19 and 4th quarter period ends Dec 31st.

However OCT 22 CLL announced first sale of bitumen and stated production averaged 300 bbd day.

Dec 19 CLL announces past week average of 400bbd peaking out to 600bbd.

The reason I'm pointing this out is that the high cost of initial steam was spread over 2 reporting periods and sales commenced. So it's my opinion that there should be no effect on EPS from Q3 reported earnings of .23 when the market decided the stock was worth around $4.00.

HOWEVER, if I'm wrong about steam effecting EPS then I see only a drop of a few cents from Q3 or remaining flat.. This is why the short position increased again just prior to the current news release.

Long rant now over,, I predict a series of news releases this month, next will be a report on wellhead conversions and production levels,followed shortly after by year end ( positive production news would offset any possible earnings drop). Then followed within 6 weeks with Q1 reports..Q1 will have no initial steam on it and only sales.

Either way,,looks like within  10 weeks we'll finally see which way this puppy is headed, and that's why I think we're gonna force a short squeeze.

 

 

 

 

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