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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: ‘Opec may cut output to defend $80 a barrel’

Jurek

With regards to:

"No response to the posters stance ,opinion or analysis does not indicate the forum acceptance. Some opinions and stance are so obviously wrong that they do not require response.As an example your last CLL NAVPS numbers ($7.67) .The only good number you had was the PDP share in the CLL NAV at $0.56. Your mistake was to apply the net present value for a revenue using 6% for 25 years to CLL conventional assets. This lead you to wrong conclusions. (Total CLL conventional --LUKE,Refinery,PDP--NAVPS is about $1.6).”

Please note I preferenced my post on Connacher’s value with this statement: “The following is strictly my opinion using my own personal evaluation of Connacher’s Value:” I never claimed to use GAP principles in my analysis. I was just offering an alternative perspective on value . You state that the “The only good number you had was the PDP share in the CLL NAV at $0.56” Since my other numbers were so bad would you please give your estimation with their contribution to share price with regards to Refinery, Conventional Oil and Gas, Pod1 2000 barrels/day production, and the value of the Oil Sand Leases and proven reserves.

Did you ever consider that your analysts opinions might be wrong? Have you ever applied something totally different than good accounting principles in your analysis of a particular stock. One analyst’s report I bought last summer said that Connacher should easily reach $6.00 by December 2007. Net present value is in reality what determines a stock’s price. That’s why earnings are so important and why future outlooks are taken so seriously. Why can’t you apply it to the various income streams for a company as well as their composite earnings? I made the assumption that Connacher’s income streams for the refinery and its conventional production would remain constant but I don’t think this is an unrealistic assumption. By using 25 years the true net present value is slightly less than if I used the net present value calculations natural limit but I figured to just keep it simple and use the projected life of Connacher’s Oil Sands projects.

You did not refute the possibility of hidden transactions. Is this because you believe it is so obviously wrong it didn’t warrant a response?

With regards to this issue “SirrocoPlace” on the Stockhouse forum posted the following in one of his posts:

“As for those smaller share lots, that is mainly retail. If investment houses want to work the price, they can get an agreement from the TSX to not post the trade until after it has occured so as not to "disrupt the orderly flow of the market". In other words, House 7 for example wants to buy 500,000 shares of CLL. They collect all the shares at an agreed price, close the transaction, and then post it on time and sales, not on the Level II as an offer to buy. The deal is done and the orderly flow of the market is not disrupted. If that offer was posted, the ask would rise, the spread would widen, the volume needed to fill would be subjected to buying pressure thus pushing the price higher and so on. “

When I posted the following:

“SiroccoPlace

With regards to: " If investment houses want to work the price, they can get an agreement from the TSX to not post the trade until after it has occured so as not to "disrupt the orderly flow of the market". "

Does the tsx really allow this type of transaction? Can an investment house sell in the same fashion? If they can, isn't it possible that they could easily manipulate the market, almost at will? Martin

He replied:

“Bad choice of words. Say the bid is 3.00, ask is 3.05, not a lot of movement. If ABC brokerage came on the bid and showed 100,000 the market would instantly react and move the ask higher, forcing the bid up and the buyer would have to chase the market. So rather than cause a "disorderly market" the purchasing company would contact the TSX and inform them they had struck a deal and would print the order out but not show it on the Level II. The price is now 3.00, ask still 3.05, and 100K shares go through time and sales at 3.00 X 100,000. The order is done. Completed. Now, if the market decides to use that print out as a reason to jack the price up, they simply pile on the bid and raise the ask. Often the #1 designation is used so the market is no wiser as to who bought and who sold, thus limiting volatility.”

In my opinion SirrocoPlace is one of the few quality posters on the Stockhouse forum. Do a query on his posts and you will see that they reeal an author who is extremely knowledgeable concerning investing. I thought what he posted with regards to "hidden transactions" sounded unreasonable but after his reply I have no valid reason to doubt him. If you can give evidence to the contrary please do so.

I remain convinced that Connacher is drastically undervalued and that when it breaks free of this extremely strange trading pattern the sp will rapidly rise to close to Connacher's true value.

Martin

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