I don't profess to be an expert on investing or financing, I'm just a private investor who does research on my investments.PLease feel free to correct me if I'm wrong cause that's how we learn.

THIS is my understanding,

All earnings are estimated using a variety of calculations,including.

1- What is a barrel of light ( I think it's referred to as sweet ) crude oil currently worth and what could it be worth if current trends continue.It takes more bitumen to produce light crude depending on how it's upgraded. I believe a barrel of bitume is around $60.

2- If Pod1 continues to be ahead of schedule and trouble free as it has so far, then what is the estimated production in the near future based on the specifications of the equipement being used running at full capacity and efficiency.

3- How good were the drilling reports? they know it's there but apparently not all oil sand deposits are created equal. In some ( as CLL have implied include theres) the bitumen is much easier to extract. If this is the case then the 10k ramp up will take less time. This will only be know once the oil starts flowing.

4- You then have to calculate earnings of LUKE and the Montana Refinery.

Earnings are calculated based on after production costs, taxes and royalties.. Light Crude or Bitumen is irrelevent.