I agree with your comments . There are some wildcards in the mix that make the timing and impact of Euro stabilisation quite uncertain.

First, the US has a significant interest in the demise of the Euro as a short term tonic for the dollar. Won't cure it, but puts life into it and has taken all pressure off treasury auctions. The weak Euro actually rubs off a bit on other currencies , though not permanently.

Second, if you are shorting the Euro, what do you buy? While the quick answer is "the dollar" (US Treasuries) there will be significant long attraction to precious metals, especially by those who do not think the USD is any better long term. But not to most equities (other than precious metals) due to the political instabilities.

Third, how does China react ? Likely, standing on the sidelines looking for bargains and lower prices to result. Very patient folks who will use the situation as they can to secure cheaper resources. This plays right to their interests. China's currency does not compete with gold so they are likely to remain significant buyers.

Bottom line, I see the situation sticky and protracted with huge potential for continuing political unrest in Europe. There are few cool heads to prevail. The workouts will be difficult.Real economies will suffer.

I am beginning to think if I were a diversified metals miner with 12-15 billion available, I would buy out one or more well resourced gold/silver miners. Just a thought. Long term base metal mine development with heavy sunk costs will remain off the radar for quite a while. Hope you are a Philly fan,( this post took about six ads) .