Although I have recently predicted the market would get to 7,000 (did people ever think I was crazy at that time) if it was a relatively soft landing or possibly 4000 or less if a hard landing, I have never been much good at predictions.

I must admit I have started adding to positions ... TCK.B at 16.00 (and a 5+% dvd) was too low to resist buying today .... also already holding a healthy positiion ..SPF.UN with a current yield of 16.5%+ is a must buy at 8.00.

So where will the market come to rest given the pendulum usually swings too far in both directions? Can't promise a time, but I have for some time said the final market ranges should be between 8500 -9500.

I know it is not really scientific to put a ruler on a long term chart but when you do so you see the irrational exuberance started in the 90's changed the slope from the 20ish+ years prior. Tthe return to the "normal" slope takes us to that range.

Gold is hard to predict because it should be higher and as long as central banks work together to maintain the $US as the chosen currency for international trade I can't see it passing 1,100 in the next year.

With the money printing the US must do and its inflationary effects gold will eventually increase as the $US erodes and less friendly traders with the US increase thier tendency towards gold.

Speaking of Irrational exuberance ... the period of of time when the cost of borrowing should have been raised ... not lowered was indeed the beginning of the "Greater Depression" ... first of all the stock market would not have increased since interest bearing vehicles would have been more attractive.

Second, the teaser interest rates which caused the real estate bubble would not have caused the over heating of that market driving prices higher and increasing speculative purchases by those unable to afford upgrades and investment properties.

Finally, it would have slowed overall growth to a more sustainable level.

If you are a Keynesian, fiscal policy should be designed to maintain an even keel to an economy so it should be contrarian to what the market without government interference is doing. In other words when nobody is buying, the government must, and when everyone is buying the government needs to save in order to finance infrastructure during the rainy days.

Unfortunately Politics gets in the way of everything and rarely do policy makers act within the agenda of public interest ... this particular US administration is particularly corrupt and their greed was essential to the way they will be negativey impacting lives for years to come.

All the best.

Orgy