Re: While we wait.....My2cents(EL...
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 27, 2007 07:34AM
You and I are both definitely on the same wavelength. It really boils down to just simple mathematics ....and a little bit of business inside knowledge. Considering that CSG was able to make a penny a share in the second quarter off of only 15,000 ounces of gold/year accretive c/o the El Sastre mine AND at gold at only 685 dollars per ounce (avg.), JUST IMAGINE how much money per share we should be making with production at 45,000 ounces per year AND at gold at 785 dollars per ounce!!! And the earnings are not merely 'Additive" beyond 15,000 ounces of production but are rather "Synergistic". In other words the production beyond the initial 15,000 ounces should provide even a bigger pop to earnings even with price of gold kept constant merely because many of the costs associated with salaries, pensions, health insurances, etc. should already be "absorbed" within the initial cash flow from the initial 15,000 ounces of production. Production beyond that should be more akin to "pure profitable cash flow". Plus we don't have the problem of a rising Peso as compared to the rising Canadian dollar. Add in minimal debt and this company's low profile and you have a recipe for a tremendously undervalued company. It'll be interesting to see how things 'unfold" over the years with this company and its stock price. Should in fact be "real interesting". Undeniably there are some risks but the upside potential is far greater than the downside risk, in my opinon, at these levels.
Also, as a last thought, consider that AEM is priced at over 55 dollars with an expected production of 1.2 million of ounces by 2011, and with CSG we are priced at 80 cents with expected production of 45,000 ounces by 2008. So our production goal should be met 3 years earlier and to boot we are priced at a discount that would be comparable to AEM being only a 21 dollar stock instead of being at 55 dollars. That represents CSG being at a greater than 60% discount RELATIVE TO GOLD PRODUCTION ONLY and with AEM's production quota being extended 3 years further out. Plus AEM's production gives "less bang to the buck" since they have to deal with the strong Canadian dollar .....hence only earned 8 cents last quarter. Hence the actual projected earnings relative to stock price may represent more akin to an 80% discount to stock price compared to AEM .....reserves aside, of course. Similar arguments can probably be made with many gold stocks out there. We seem to be significantly undervalued here. But I can't figure out why the insiders aren't swallowing this company's stock up "like no tomorrow". I can't help but to think that I may be misssing something ....whether real or not.
Just my overall 2 cents .....for whatever it is worth.