Wilfred - this was my last post on another board. I hope it doesn't read like an attack on CIVC management as has been suggested. I thought it was rather the opposite.

Hi Folks,

I've been reading with some interest the last few posts, most of which happened overnight for me. Here are my thoughts:

1. The 'Three Target' debate is a misreading of the geology. Progressing downwards, the possible reservoir formations the drill is passing through are the Aguathuna, the Cartoche, the Boat Harbour and the Watt's Bight.
All of these are layers of limestone, which were laid down on top of each at different times over millions of years, with varying levels of exposure on the surface. Together they form a continuous layer of limestone called the St George's Group which I think might be a kilometre or more thick. Whether they contain oil or not is dependent upon:
- the degree of atmospheric erosion, or Karsting, named after a limestone area in the former Jugoslavia, and
- the degree of dolomitisation, an alteration of the basic structure of the rock itself through heat, pressure and
the infiltration of water and minerals deep below ground.
The level of dolomitisation is thought to be connected with how far the rock is from the Roundhead Thrust, and the dolomitisation process is thought to have penetrated to a distance of between one and five kilometres to the west of the Roundhead Thrust. In other areas dolomitisation has been encountered in all the formations, so that any of the layers listed above could theoretically be oil bearing if they have been dolomitised sufficiently. The top of the reservoir, the Aguathuna, has certainly been dolomitised and so should contain oil - the 20million barrel target. Further drilling will determine whether lower levels have been dolomitised and so are potentially oil bearing.
It should go without saying that this is my interpretation of my reading. I see it as a continuous reservoir, and what have been misleadingly called targets are not infact separate resevoirs, but estimates of how much oil is contained in the reservoir if it extends to various depths. How deep,in other words, is the lake? If the structure is dome shaped, then the upper layers have a smaller capacity than the lower levels, therefore the deeper the lake, the wider it is.
Again, just my opinion, but since oil migrates upwards through the rock, the downside is that if there is no oil in the Aguathuna I can't see why it would be at any of the deeper levels either. The upside is that the SPE team must know what they are doing, so why would they be drilling on towards the lower levels if there is no oil in the Aguathuna? Either they have encountered oil or, if they haven't, my theorising is a nonsense, which is a positive which ever way you look at it. Or they have got it wrong, which, with all those doctorates kicking around, is highly unlikely.

2. On the Tight Hole status, isn't it the operators of a well who have the authority to declare a tight hole? Therefore, in this case, the release of information is controlled at the first level by the operators. CIVC can therefore only release what they have been told, therefore if they have not been told anything that constitutes a material change, then they can't inform shareholders. However, if they had been told of an oil strike, or a dry well by the operators, then I think they would have to release that information. As we have been told nothing either way, then we have to assume the directors of CIVC don't know as yet.

So we wait, worry and theorise.

Regards
Dunnock