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Message: NUMBERS

Couple of numbers re Reserves

posted on Jul 03, 2008 02:59AM

I have done a preliminary estimation what this reserves could have as value per share. Comments are welcome!!

Assumptions
Reserves (million barrels) 1,000 2,000
Recovery Rate (%) 10%
Oil Price ($) 140.0
Profit per barrel (as % of oil price) 14.0 10%
Exchange Rate (CAD/$) 1.01
Diluted NOSH (million) 402.2

Reserves (million barrels)

3.5

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Recovery Rate (%)

2.5%

0.44

0.66

0.88

1.10

1.32

1.54

1.76

5.0%

0.88

1.32

1.76

2.20

2.64

3.08

3.52

7.5%

1.32

1.98

2.64

3.30

3.96

4.62

5.28

10.0%

1.76

2.64

3.52

4.40

5.28

6.16

7.04

12.5%

2.20

3.30

4.40

5.50

6.60

7.70

8.80

15.0%

2.64

3.96

5.28

6.60

7.92

9.24

10.56

17.5%

3.08

4.62

6.16

7.70

9.24

10.78

12.33

Note: Output Sheet is the reserves potential per share in CAD

Reserves (million barrels)

3.5

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Oil Price ($)

80

1.01

1.51

2.01

2.52

3.02

3.52

4.02

100

1.26

1.89

2.52

3.14

3.77

4.40

5.03

120

1.51

2.26

3.02

3.77

4.53

5.28

6.04

140

1.76

2.64

3.52

4.40

5.28

6.16

7.04

160

2.01

3.02

4.02

5.03

6.04

7.04

8.05

180

2.26

3.40

4.53

5.66

6.79

7.92

9.06

200

2.52

3.77

5.03

6.29

7.55

8.80

10.06

Note: Output Sheet is the reserves potential per share in CAD



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