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Message: Re: Couple of numbers re Reserves
4
Jul 03, 2008 02:59AM

Sorry guys, there was an error in my estimations. The % of ownership was missing. Although I think the estimation is really conservative since I am just using 10% recovery rate as the midpoint. When pasting it doesn't look very good, but I hope you can real properly the tables.

Assumptions
Reserves (million barrels) 1,000 2,000
Recovery Rate (%) 10%
Oil Price ($) 140.0
Profit per barrel (as % of oil price) 14.0 10%
Exchange Rate (CAD/$) 1.01
Diluted NOSH (million) 402.2
Ownership 22.5%

Reserves (million barrels)

0.8

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Recovery Rate (%)

2.5%

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

5.0%

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.59

0.69

0.79

7.5%

0.30

0.45

0.59

0.74

0.89

1.04

1.19

10.0%

0.40

0.59

0.79

0.99

1.19

1.39

1.58

12.5%

0.50

0.74

0.99

1.24

1.49

1.73

1.98

15.0%

0.59

0.89

1.19

1.49

1.78

2.08

2.38

17.5%

0.69

1.04

1.39

1.73

2.08

2.43

2.77

Note: Output Sheet is the reserves potential per share in CAD

Reserves (million barrels)

0.8

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Oil Price ($)

80

0.23

0.34

0.45

0.57

0.68

0.79

0.91

100

0.28

0.42

0.57

0.71

0.85

0.99

1.13

120

0.34

0.51

0.68

0.85

1.02

1.19

1.36

140

0.40

0.59

0.79

0.99

1.19

1.39

1.58

160

0.45

0.68

0.91

1.13

1.36

1.58

1.81

180

0.51

0.76

1.02

1.27

1.53

1.78

2.04

200

0.57

0.85

1.13

1.41

1.70

1.98

2.26

Note: Output Sheet is the reserves potential per share in CAD



1
Jul 03, 2008 04:22AM
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