I’ve been thinking a lot about the way the share price is behaving, and I can’t see anything there that is a cause for concern. I’m pretty inexperienced in the game but this is the way I look at it. We have to consider who the shareholders are:

a) I would suspect that most of the small investors are Newfoundlanders, with the majority of the rest being Canadians. Knowledge of this play isn’t that widespread elsewhere.

b) Major shareholders include the three companies involved and their directors.

c) Then there are the others – institutions, the mms, maybe hedge funds who have been playing about with a bit of shorting. However, when you look at the figures involved, a couple of hundred thousand shares here, a hundred thousand there, they are chicken feed compared with the outstanding shares and the numbers some of them could hold. I think they are doing just what the rest of us are doing – waiting for the big hit. And we investors should keep in mind that if we don’t sell, they can’t buy.

Against this you have to look at who will be watching this play.

a) Newfoundlanders and Canadians who got burned last time around, maybe twice. They will want to know that the oil and gas are flowing and that they are going to go on flowing before they put another toe in the water.

b) Professional investors, here and abroad. They are not well known for taking too many chances.

c) Potential small investors in Britain have mainly heard about it by word of mouth and most of those will be in already. I expect the same goes for Frankfurt, and Germany and other bits of Europe and the States.

Take into consideration also that Enegi Oil is biding its time with its news releases – and the information that has come out through them has been largely limited to publications that only professional investors would encounter.

Then look at the scenario if a major hit and its potential is confirmed.

a) Institutions come crowding from Canada, Europe the States hoping to get in early enough to make a few bucks.

b) Small investors in Newfoundland and Canada who pick up any early rumours will hope to get in before the major players.

c) News hits the financial headlines in Britain – Manchester’s First Oil Company Hits the Big Time – and millions of folk here who didn’t give it much thought suddenly hear about Newfoundland oil, and the potential in the area that has been confirmed at Shoal Point. They want to be in on it.

d) The same happens in Germany, and it spreads to the rest of the continent.

Of course everything hinges on the kind of strike we are hoping for, and I think only God can say whether that will happen or not. But if it does – well, I don’t think it is too outlandish to believe that not just CIVC, but any oil company that is involved in West Coast Newfoundland is going to go through the roof. To put it succinctly. Shorters? Look at my face. Am I bovvered?

Regards

Dunnock