Opinion....(no charge)
posted on
Mar 19, 2008 09:54AM
Royalty interest in two producing mines in Flin Flon, Manitoba
It may very well be as reboot says with HB flying on a wing and a prayer that holding our price down will make any lowball offer they present seem more acceptable.(talking about the Flin Flon properties only) The problem with that is that I doubt that with any shares held in HB people's hands and any votes they are able to sway, they will not be able to get acceptance for any low offer.
From what I hear from different sources is that most sensible retail shareholders acting alone or on broker recommendations and the major shareholders themselves will not entertain anything under $5.00. It is also my opinion that HBM would much less be able to coerce enough share support for any forced takeover without an under the table payoff to someone. I wouldn't put that past HBM but I think our people have much more honour and integrity. The market is not right on CAA and has not been right for quite a while and the people who know this company know that and I think that speaks for a healthy majority of us. Nobody should be entertaining the wrong thinking that just because CAA might be trading at $1.65 and HBM might offer us anything even $3.00 higher that it is a good offer. It's not!
It is nevertheless very obvious when you see offers stacked like CIBC has been doing for quite a while now that someone wants shares below a certain price. With CAA's typical volumes it does not take any huge iceberg in order to effect one, be it either singular or segmented as this CIBC device is. Segmented gives the ability to pull the offers gradually reducing risk of someone actually buying all their offered stock as the price rises and not have to re-enter an offer for the balance.
The same people are buying either as anonymous or with another broker account and usually these buys will not be seen among the Level II listed bids. They just jump in and grab up low enough offers to suit their liking. To enter all their bids as standing bids able to be seen on Level II would show more buying strength than selling and tend to raise the bid balancing against their little iceberg.
Who is selling?.... Desperate people, impatient people, nervous people, people who live in caves and people who do not have Level II quotes to see what is going on or maybe can't recognize it if they do see it.
Who is buying? ...(aside from possible HBM people) Definately people who feel the stock price is going to increase dramatically. Among them could very likely be people who are more interested in the likelyhood that CAA will soon be moved up to the TSX big board than they are about drilling Fox River. Fox is a good gamble and has the potential to move CAA's share price higher that anything else but it is still a gamble today. After moving up to TSX, it is much less a gamble and more certain to move the share price to where it should actually be based on the income aspect, P/E ratio, EPS and all. Suppose for a minute these are the people buying CAA under the little icecap getting a jump on CAA moving up to the TSX. These people are investors much more than they are speculators. What could be sweeter to them than a company with earnings, picking up the odd dividend and sitting on a share price three times what they paid for it as insurance.
Not a lot has been talked about CAA being moved up to the TSX. It doesn't maybe sound as exciting but it is as certain to have a positive effect on share price as anything else at the moment.
The bottom line of this thread though is yes, in my not so humble opinion, there is hokeypokey going on with our share price and has been for some time. Different people at times for different reasons doing it but underlying it all, ... is that all of them are either hopefull or afraid that the CAA share price is going to go up dramatically enough for them to go to this amount of trouble either just trying to supress it or scoop up shares as cheaply as they can.
Funny:....I have always heard the term "hokeypokey" used to describe dubious dealings and affairs.
Meriam-Webster says it is, "ice cream sold by street vendors", ..... and eventually the CIBC icebergs will melt too.
GLTA,
/Isaya