Overview of CMB situation

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tectol

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Overview of CMB situation

posted on Oct 30, 2010 09:32AM

At this point the price of silver is very strong $24.57 and the gold/silver ratio is reflecting an interesting increase in the price of silver lately , QE2 is about to be announced on nov 3 lifting up expectations for growth in the US and probably giving a further booost to commodities and even more so to silver , while maintaining long term uncertainty about the US dollar .

IMO this should push the price of silver even further before the end of the year .

THE SHARE STRUCTURE

Sorry for the lack of precision but the company's web site share stucture information dates back to sept.1 2009 and is not up to date having revised some of the warrants conditions over the last year . At that time ( sept1 2009 ) there were 45.2 m shares fully diluted with 32 m shares issued , there is now over 37 m shares issued . The most recent press release regarding share stucture are as follow :

October 28, 2010
Closing and Increase in 1,568,000 Unit Private Placement @ $0.15

Vancouver, B.C.: CMC Metals Ltd. (the "Company") wishes to announce that it has closed its private placement at $0.15 per Unit as originally announced on September 24, 2010, as amended by press release dated October 25, 2010. This placement has been oversubscribed and increased from 1,568,000 Units to 1,868,000 Units, raising gross proceeds of approximately $280,200. Upon receipt of final TSX Exchange approval, the Company will issue 1,868,000 common shares to its placees at $0.15 per share and issue Warrant Certificates for 1,868,000 Warrant Shares. The terms of the exercise of the Share Purchase Warrants are one common share is to be issued upon the surrender of every one Warrant at $0.20 per share for a twelve month period, resulting in the further issuance of 1,868,000 common shares should all the Warrant Shares be exercised. The Warrants issued pursuant to this placement are transferable. The proceeds of the $280,200 raised will be used for general working capital. The value of the finder's fees payable is $7,603.50, representing approximately 2.7% of the total gross proceeds raised.

　

The Company further wishes to announce that it has closed its flow-thru private placement at $0.15 per Unit as announced by press release dated June 28, 2010, the terms of which were amended by press releases dated July 9, 2010 and September 15, 2010, raising gross proceeds of $459,675 and issuing a total of 3,902,667 flow-through common shares to its placees at $0.15 per share, and issuing Warrant Certificates for 3,902,667 Warrant Shares. The terms of the exercise of the Share Purchase Warrants are that every two Warrants are exercisable into one "flow-through" common share at $0.20 per share expiring September 23, 2011, resulting in the further issuance of 1,951,333 common shares should all the Warrant Shares be exercised pursuant to this placement, as amended

Share Structure (as of Tue Sep 1, 2009)
Trading Symbol:	CMB on TSX-V
Shares Outstanding	32,622,297
Warrants Outstanding:	7,565,666 Half Warrants exercisable at $0.20 per share expiring December 31, 2009	4,034,440 Warrants exercisable at $0.15 per share expiring June 15,2011	2,043,000 Half Warrants exercisable at $0.30 per share expiring August 25,2010

Options Outstanding:
275,000 expiry date December 12, 2009 at $0.65/share
	2,475,000 expiry date June 25, 2011 at $0.15/share
Property shares to be issued:	1,000,000
Fully Diluted:	45,211,070
*Flow-Through

THE MILL

The company has acquired a 50 tpd mill to process ore extracted from it's property and other mine sites aroud .

"

BISHOP MILL - California

CMC Metals purchased 100 percent ownership of a 50 tpd mill located in Bishop, California. The mill was constructed by Mammoth Mountain Mining in 1985 and is fully secured by fence, line power to the site, one mile from a paved highway and contains a water well for operational use.

The Bishop Mill is intended to be a source for permitted mines in the area to process ore. The company intends to not only earn income from producing ore concentrate but will also seek to acquire a potential interest in the underlying mineral properties. In the short term, CMC plans to commission the mill by expanding the tailings pond, doubling the mills rated capacity, acquire and/or joint venture on mineral properties that can be source material for the mill and make necessary preparations to be ready for processing. CMC Metals are scheduling the commissioning of the mill during the first quarter of 2011. The only remaining permit is the Water Licence to construct the tailings pond. "

THE PROPERTY

　

THE SILVER HART PROPERTY - Yukon

PERMITTING

The company has filed for exploitation permit and is awayting them in order to start processing ore , once the permits are granted CMB will start processing ore through it's own mill . IMO that's when the SP will start reflecting the real value of this company.

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM	Buy

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator	Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel	Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands	Buy

Short Term Indicators Average:	100% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 133424

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index	Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price	Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average:	100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 72387

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index	Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator			Sell

Long Term Indicators Average:	33% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 57230

Overall Average:	88% - Buy

Price	Support	Pivot Point	Resistance

0.2300	0.1900	0.2200	0.2500

SETBACKS :

The company has encountered some serious setbacks in 2009-2010 after complaints from the BCSC that it advertised it's propety based on historical facts that were not 43-101 compliants . The company was then forbidden from trading for a number of months and when it resumed trading it's SP went from over $0.30 to below $0.20 , where it remained for most of the year .

They have since complied with The 43-101 requirements and recently it's SP and volumes have increased over $0.20 .

　

IMO

The real value of the company once they receive needed permits should be well above the price it was ( around $0.32 ) once trading was stopped after the BCSC order in the fall of 2009 . By mid year 2011 i believe it could easily reach over $0.40 once production is in full swing and exploration extends over the silver heart property . Let's recall that only 6.5% of the property is being explored and production will bring in flow through capital permitting the company to further explore it's properties .

The major mile stone we are awayting is the permitting to be delivered once this news come out the SP should get a nice jump . The recent volumes and increase in SP seem very promising at this time .

Price History for CMC Metals Ltd.

.singleCellPadding { padding-top:10px; }
Historical Data for CMC Metals Ltd. (CMB)
Top of Form 1 Bottom of Form 1


Top of Form 2 &&&&
Start: End: Enter date to view previous 30 days of price history (mm/dd/yyyy): GO
Bottom of Form 2
Date	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	Chg	% Chg
10/29/2010	0.200	0.225	0.200	0.225	28,675	0.025	12.50%
10/28/2010	0.215	0.215	0.195	0.200	146,050	-0.015	-6.98%
10/27/2010	0.220	0.220	0.210	0.215	101,700	-0.005	-2.27%
10/26/2010	0.220	0.230	0.220	0.220	113,045	-0.005	-2.22%
10/25/2010	0.240	0.240	0.200	0.225	390,510	0.005	2.27%
10/22/2010	0.195	0.230	0.195	0.220	497,570	0.035	18.92%
10/21/2010	0.180	0.185	0.180	0.185	19,000	0.005	2.78%
10/20/2010	0.165	0.180	0.165	0.180	5,131	0.000	0.00%
10/19/2010	0.170	0.180	0.170	0.180	9,500	0.010	5.88%
10/18/2010	0.190	0.190	0.170	0.170	16,000	-0.005	-2.86%