I would'nt know where things are going right now for the short run probably more of the same for a while but logicaly the dollar's climb should come to an abrupt halt at some point .

The same arguments as last year stand in it's favor right now , fears that problems are worse in europe , that China's growth and real estate can't be sustained , that interest rates are bound to raise , that global growth is lagging predictions and quantitative easing is about to end .

Real estate problems in the US private as well as commercial points against a rise in rates any time soon imo , the banking sector fragility , the huge deficit and the large unemployment still requires the FEd to sustain quantitative easing . The US bond markets won't be able to stand long without the FED getting involved . China can't afford growth below 6 %to 7% without facing social unrest .

Europe's problems are similar to the US high unemployment huge deficits in some parts and a banking system as fragile as the US without quantitative easing support .

The strenght of the dollar is relative to the weakness perceived elsewhere but it does'nt stand on it's own . The US debt is overwhelming by all standards and it's bound to come back haunting the US dollar sooner then later .

I believe China will raise the yuan value some time this year and if global growth does'nt improve i don't think it will help the US dollar or it's economy , i even think at some point China will realise it will have to stop supporting the US dollar and take some loss on it's huge holdings in US dollar and bonds in order to move out some of those assets elsewhere .

Where will it go that's the big question they'll have to answer before hand and imo gold and commodities as well as a restructuring in foreign reserves will have to happen . The foreign reserve part is the big headache they're facing right now from here i would say they'll have to broader their holdings in ecu in rupees in cdn. an aussie dolllars in yens and maybe a ole lot more currencies from emerging economies . They need a big plan and a systemic approach , i don't mean they will leave the US dollar naked but i believe they will gradualy divest from the US dollar over the next couple of years buying other currencies on the dip and taking advantage of the US dollar strenght .

Fear is here to stay for quite some times and the markets will certainly feel the pain but i believe gold and silver among others should sustain their climb for some years to come .

PS Casey i think your arguments for buying more of CMB today stands right , the PP stands in your favor long as recent games being played out are over .

Tec