ES was spud around 13 Feb and was expected to take 60 days to TD (13 Apr) 4300 meters. Assuming everything goes perfectly without any mechanical problems on the rig and no drilling problems with the geology the well could reach TD in this timeframe, if drilling encountered any Hydro Carbon Shows this would require downhole testing to determine if they have an economical resevoir or not, testing could take a week or a month or more.

Inpex's Aitikanti well was drilled to TD of 5483 meters, it was spud on 14 Apr 2011 and finished 4 Dec 2011 (7 months +-) it was way over budget due to technical challenges which caused the drilling to go far beyond the estimated time frame and, if as rumoured they where successfull, testing would have been part of this delay.

The well design for Eagle Shallow would be based largely on the well records of Abary 1 (Shell 1975 3990 meters TD) due to the close proximity to ES. Abary 1 flowed crude oil in the mud but was abandonded due to mechanical difficulties with high pressure.

If ES is targeting the same pay zone as Abary 1 they will probably be drilling into the same unstable formations and high pressure zones as which caused Shell to loose thier Abary 1 well which was capped and abandonded and didn't reach the planned TD of 4600 meters.

I am sure that CGX has designed thier well to deal with potential high pressure kick's and faulty geology which could cause them to loose the well but, they may encounter drilling difficuties such as Abary 1 and Aitikanti experianced and this could significantly extentend the drilling time frame but would not mean that they won't find Oil.

The outcome of this well may not be known for sometime and being a tight well CGX probably won't release any information until drilling, testing and anaylsis of the results are completed. Maybe the longer this takes the better. JMO.