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Message: Disagree

Sniper007,

I'm not saying BTI won't get above a buck in the next few years.  If I had to guess, I see the odds as something less than 50%.  So maybe it will happen but I'll be surprised if it does.  

As I mentioned in my prior note, "IMO, what's most important for shareholders is to move 001 into clinical trials (unless Chiesi moves sooner)".  Perhaps Chiesi will move sooner.  I just have no visibility there.  What preclinical work remains to be done?  How have they been delayed by the pandemic?  Are their treatments showing success in preclinical trials?  How long will it take to formulate clincal batches of XB3-00x?

I'd be much more confident if we had a solid, funded timeline for 001.  That's the golden ticket IMO.  The potential market is huge.  But in the last presentation (after multiple delays) they dropped their estimate on the timeline.  No partner and/or not yet enough money from what I see.

So yes, I'm skeptical on the timeline to a buck and a clinical trial.  And I have no idea what chrispi means by "the remainder of the year will be prosperous for shareholders".

BTW, the "things take longer than people think" is from the Planning Fallacy from the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.  It's worth a look.  Humans are notoriously and consistently bad at estimating time (and money) it will take for the completion of any project.  It tells me that any current timeline projections folks have for a buck, or a clinical trial, or "prosperity" likely continue to be significant underestimates of how long it will actually take.

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