More data for your dd, which I am awaiting with great anticipation...

Thanks Monmick. Sorry it took so long to get onto this, but then, it's not like gold stocks are going through the roof lately.

OK, first off, I owned this one before. Bought in May 07, bailed at a loss in Dec 07. It's lower now, in fact it's taken a two year round trip. Nothing unusual there I guess. Just about every junior has experienced the same. Maybe there's something to this naked short thing? Sure looks like it.

So, if the overiding factor in owning any of these stocks right now is the unknown amount of phantom shares out, which presumably don't show up in the short interest data, then after you've done your DD and have detected value on the fundamentals, you still have to have an opinion on what happens next vis-a-vis the shorts. Not to belabour the point - I just want to be clear that it's a significant factor in almost any junior you look at these days. One day these guys are going to have their heads handed to them. One day. In the meantime, you have a buying opportunity in a lot of these companies, so you can afford to be selective. If you have the patience and conviction, that is.

So, lets see if there's any value here...

But first a red flag. If there's one thing I absolutely hate, it's having to go to SEDAR for the latest financials. The last filing on GUY's website is for 2005 (!) and the share structure data is entirely absent. So then I looks in the press releases, and same thing. No financials. WTF?

This is usually the point where I move on. If a company can't be bothered to provide this info on their website - the face they show the world - then why should I dig for it? NEXT! Contrast this with Aurelian's webpage where everything you need to know is no more than a couple of clicks away. ARU isn't just the flagship discovery of this cycle, it's also an excellent example of web design and detailed, timely content. But I digress.

So what does GUY have then?

Well, from their 2007 AR, released Apr-08 "In October of last year an initial resource of 4.65 million ounces of gold, (1.97 million indicated and 2.68 million inferred)"

Shares out looks like about 56 M including warrants, but there a whole swath of options at various prices, so lets kick it up to 60 M to be on the safe side, considering that this data is from Oct 07.

So, at the last close of 4.53, that gives us a market cap of around 272 M. Now let's go to Yahoo and see if it matches what they have: 236 M on 52.13 M outstanding. Alright. I went high it seems, but I like to err on the side of caution, especially when I have to DIG for the freaking information!

So, basically the market's pricing their gold at $50.75 oz. or if you use my numbers, $58.49. Not too shabby. Not that unusual either, given the market. Still, lots of room between $50 and $900. Your mining costs could be $450 and you're still in good shape.

Oh, and they show 24 M in cash and cash equivalents. Let's knock that down to 20 M to make it more current. Still not bad. No pressure to finance at these low levels.

OK, that's my superficial overview. I'll dig further into the detail in the next few days, but right now it's 3 AM and I'm dead beat. Rode my bike all over the trails at UBC today, and brother, I'm feeling it...

ebear