The next 3 or 4 weeks should be a very interesting time in the presious metal markets. Now I certainly get the feeling that there is much uncertainty in the gold market and even fear right now. A number of analysts that I respect have started to hedge what they are saying, but I interpret the underlying tone to take it they have exited the market in order to sit on the side lines for a while. I understand this from their perspective.

The Perma bears on gold who in my opinion are nothing but a bunch of establishment schills I do not pay attention to. When these clowns start turning positive then I will sit up and take note.

There are a number of reasons to be cautious in the gold market right now, those being the high volitility, gold having risen significantly so far in a short period of time, the mining shares while most not doing poorly still have not performed as well as gold itself and most importantly in my opinion the upcoming CFTC rule changes that are supposed to be announced in early December on new position limits for commodities.

It is highly likely that they will be imposing position limits on the presious metals also from what has been reported so far. This is a game changer and rightly has people nervous. Now it does not take a genious to understand that when someone wants the rules of the game changed it is because they are losing Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha. It also does not take a genious to determine who is losing in the gold market right now either.

However the gold manipulators are in between a rock and a hard place the way I see it. For those people who are exiting the gold market at the moment I have no doubt that they beleive the positions limits will be imposed only on the longs and not on the shorts, especially not on the few bullion banks who hold the very large concentrated short positions. This could possibly be the case however it could result in law suits and even more unwanted attention being focused on the commodity exchanges. This would also destroy whatever credibility the US commodity exchanges have left in the presious metal pits and no one in his right mind would continue to do business there. Thus this handy tool for price control and profit would soon become irrelevant and unprofitable.

It has been my experience that shadowy charters do not like the spot light being shined on them either hahahahahahahahahahahaha.

There is another factor involved also, that being that the longs might just decide to take delivery of their metals. Metals which only the most trusting person would beleive that the shorts have immediately at hand or are even able to get any more. While the paper market can provide endless supply the physical market can not. There are many rumours floating around concerning the difficuly in customers locating and being able to purchase large quantites of bullion and even being offered 25 - 30% premiums in order not to take delivery. These rumours are somewhat confirmed by the US mint once again suspending certain coin production, all the clowns on TV willing to buy your unwanted usless gold and just resently the IMF having to sell gold to India to meet demand.

Gold while having risen sharply in the short turn is only up around 15% in the last 20 months or so and thus the spring has been compressed ever tighter. Gold in my opinion is thus due for a major rise and the shorts on the COMEX know this and are looking for a way out without suffering large loses and even fueling the rise by making good on their short contracts.

The option that the CFTC would only impose position limits on the shorts is not worth considering. The establishment boys in charge at the CFCT do not change the colour of their stripes and would not go against their Wall Street buddies. The earth starting to circle the moon has I higher probability of happeneing than the CFTC imposing only restrictions on the shorts hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Since something does need to be done though I believe a compromised will be made. That being that strict position limits will be imposed on all positions short and long. This would force all sides to wind down and effectively causing a draw with neither side losing much. I do not believe there would be much opposition to this plan since the big ETF's, who it is rumoured hold nothing but Futures contracts and thus presumably a large percentage of the short position, are managed by some of the banks who hold the largest short positions and thus would not complain.

The longs on the other hand would be happy knowing that the concentrated shorting/ suppression tactics of the banks with regards to presious metals is at an end and the price of the metals would be able to freely rise on there own merits. The commodities exchange and CFTC would receive some much needed positive PR and look good also while those real ETF whose prospectus mandates 100% bullion holdings would rise substantially. Every one is satisfied.

Now while the presious metals stocks have not been preforming as well as might be expected considering gold is setting new nominal highs this can be contributed to tax loss selling, the above mentioned, profit taking and just general nervousness. I still notice a pattern of heavy accumilation going on. Stocks that have huge selling volumes trading suddenly but being met with equally huge buying. This singles to me that these are not your ordinary retailers buying but more likely prearranged sells by the big boys and most likely the funds selling to private interests. This would not be the case if gold were about to plung over the next few weeks. In fact the media would be hyping up the presious metal stocks and the selling would be more uniform as the big boyz fed into the market slowly their legit shares plus as many shorts as they could. This buying and selling would be rather uniform which would indicate to me the retailers are getting fleeced once again.

There is also one final factor and that is the large call options positions that the big bullion banks who are tradionally short have been quietly buying up. Now this could be a head fake but for the reasons mention up above I do not beleive so. These call options are anywhere from 1200 to 1600 dollars.

Thus as my name would suggest I am all in at the moment and looking to take the pot hahahahahahahahaha.

All in my honest opinion of course as always.

F.F.