When you examine political risk, you have to look at it on a comparative, not absolute basis. You have to view it in the context of the overall global political climate, and the factors that are driving it.

Public anger at higher prices (inflation), opportunistic governments vs. captive assets (resource nationalism), relative strength of competing agencies (finance, currency, economic assets), and so on.

Using this rubric, I say Ecuador is not...that...risky.

Do companies working in Ecuador agree? Yeah... all but one.

Do analysts besides myself who are close to the situation, speak the language and understand the dynamics of Latin America agree with that assessment? Well, yeah. At least one that we know of.

Here's a quick quiz:

Which of the following countries presents the highest overall risk to a mining company with a 25 year horizon on a major capital project?

Canada

USA

Russia

Venezuela

Colombia

Ecuador

Peru

Bolivia

Chile

Brazil

Argentina

-----------

ebear