ebear

Could you expand on your thinking here, ebear? I would have thought that if Correa loses the referendum and/or a subsequent election Ecudorians would be most likely to replace him with someone more conservative given his record with the economy.

If I've read the situation correctly, the referendum has to pass in order for Correa to run again. If it fails, he serves out his term and the previous congress is reinstated. In that case, you have a lame duck president and a congress that will challenge him on many points, although probably not the mining law. If it passes, Correa will likely win, but with a minority in congress, so you may see some kind of coalition. This, IMO, is the most likely outcome. In either case you'll get a govt. that can't do much further damage, which is a good thing...heh.

Also, whether he is replaced by someone from the right or another leftist, would that that Gov't have the stomach to reopen the mining law issue and lose Ecador's last shred of credibility among the world's mining community?

The mining law will probably stand regardless of who's in office. If anything, it would receive some changes to make it more friendly, but it could also be seen as good enough and left alone, although you might see some court challenges over ownership of concessions. (not ours - the ones that were revoked)

The main problem is rebuilding confidence after everything that's happened. It will take time for the dust to settle and for investors to evaluate the new situation, post referendum and/or election. A lot of capital went up in smoke for no good reason, companies had their plans delayed or scotched altogether. That won't be forgotten very easily.

That said, Aurelian is a special case, owing to its size. It has to move ahead and either go into production or be sold to a reputable agent for confidence to return. If Aurelian can't move forward, nothing else will. We are the litmus test. The one everyone is watching. I believe the govt. understands this, so, I think we'll be OK. Just that it will take time for the confidence to return.

That's all just my opinion of course. Gold seems to be recovering here, due to the continued distress in the banking sector and the US dollar, so we could get a lift from that. Post the mining law it's also possible we'll have news from the company, so that could help too.

Still, I think the mining law is priced in already. We've had enough indications of a favorable outcome for the market to take a position ahead of the news, which it usually does. That's why we're in the fives, and not the fours right now. We could see the sixes on the news, but to get back to our old levels will take a bit more time.

The buyout, if it comes, is going to be the tricky part. How will the govt. (such as it is) respond to a purchase offer? No doubt they'll have something to say about it, which will determine if it's best to sell into the rally, or just wait for the takeout (which could be a drawn out process).

This is all extremely tedious and I know we'd all like a quick resolution. I think we just have to be patient and realize that while the worst is probably over, it will take longer for the market to recognize that than for us here, who are closer to the situation.

Just remember how much gold is there, and how much more is waiting to be discovered. That's what keeps me going.

ebear