Mind you as I stated in the begining of this mini diatribe, most of my conclusions have been reached from articles that have been squeezed through the Google Translator.
Your conclusions are basically sound. The conceptual model for understanding Ecuador is not, as I previously thought, Franz Kafka's Castle, but Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. The important point is, unlike Kafka's land surveyor, Murray eventually escaped his predicament, and so will we.
I wouldn't hold my breath on the mining law though. Like I said before, the referendum and following election are far more important.
Here's an idea: Set your startup application to play "I Got You Babe" and don't worry too much about what's in the papers. It's basically the same from one day to the next anyway. These guys have been running in a loop for the last 30 years.
ebear