Go to Hinde Capital: http://hindecapital.com and click on <Investor Letters> then get the April 08 issue and read "The NOT so Invisible Hand of Government" which starts on page 4.

This is a good summary of the overall situation in Ecuador, but the part that jumped out at me was:

"Our sources speak of a political posturing behind Correa’s back, whose term runs until 2011. Correa was taken aback by the response of the International Community to the 180 day impasse on mining. Within days he moved to speak of a faster resolution of the Mining code. Perhaps as early as July."

OK, this is the first time I've seen that in print. This seems to support what I said earlier about specialists relying on specialists, in this case Correa relying on Acosta (former mines minister) to gauge the international response to the Mining Mandate. Disagreements between the two predate the mandate, but I believe this is where the serious rift which lead to Acosta's resignation originates.

By most acounts, Acosta was the voice of reason on the assembly, insofar as he insisted on proceedures being followed that guaranteed the opposition a chance to voice its opinions. That's no longer true under the new leadership, the result being protests by opposition members, and the formation of a block which could coalese into an actual opposition party, although it's a bit early to call that one. We had one member today show up with tape over his mouth, and a group of women calling themselves Mujeres Negras, or Women In Black (is how I'd translate it) all wearing black mourning dresses as a form of protest.

We'll have to await Acosta's memoirs (or his wife's indiscretion..heh) to know his motives, but my guess is he saw the writing on the wall (assembly would not finish it's work by the deadline) and decided that since it was already game over, and he'd be left holding the bag, that he might as well do what he could to throw the brakes on mining.

A bit further on it mentions Aurelian.

Also of interest was this point:

"We personally have some sympathy with the Government as some of big miners have rights to millions of hectares of concessions which they have merely staked. In effect they have a free option on the resources that lie within them. Either they develop them or push off is in effect what the Ecuadorian assembly is saying. As it stands they pay hundreds of thousands of dollars, when in reality it should be upwards of tens of millions in light of the potential resources available."

Now that's odd, isn't it? Big miners with millions of hectares staked? Who would that be? Us? Strange.

There's some other stuff in there about Crystallex for those who follow that one, and a bunch of other information which I haven't read yet.

Enjoy!

ebear