In twenty years of democratic government Ecuador has had twelve presidents and three of them have been overthrown from 1995 up to today. In this way, the so-called "banana republic" is one of the most unstable countries in Latin America. Nevertheless, Rafael Correa has appeared as a political reformist who seeks to achieve political stability in the country. It is important to highlight that his victory was given at the expense of a party for parliamentary elections, for this reason the opposition won the majority of Parliament. This situation was reverted on September 30th of last year, when the president Correa won an absolute majority of the Constituent Assembly with his new list “Acuerdo País” ("Agreement for the country").

According to the statute of the National Assembly, installed in October 2007, the new Constitution would be ready in 180 days. However, on May 20 it was decided to extent it to 60 more days because it has not been completed. Hereby, the new Constitution will be ready on July 26 of 2008. It is important to note that according to recent polls near 68% of the population does not know whether they will approve or disapprove with “Yes” or “No” the new Constitution and, in the same way, 38% trust a few in the process. For these reasons president Correa has said that the Assembly is in a major crisis. According to the critics, this is a consequence of the lack of information that the Ecuadorian citizens have received from the government.

In spite of this, the president has mentioned that he will respect the result of the referendum that will approve the new Constitution: "If it is declined we have to restore the Congress and we would have to finish our four years of government. It would be a “yes” to “partydocracy” (the rule of the parties) and “no” to the change. We will respect the pronouncement of the Ecuadorian people". Nevertheless, he has showed confidence in "yes" due to the fact that 47% of the Ecuadorians supports the process.

Furthermore, the National Assembly has had very polemic topics. Among these, there has been a right to life and a right to abortion; the sexual rights about the homosexuals and the incorporation of the word “God” in the Constitution. In addition, it has come debating about laws that would allow the control of the State on the mass media; the regional arbitration in the international disputes; the indigenous municipalities and the new organization of the State; the change in the national symbols, among others.

On the other hand, ended the debate about universal rights, where one has resolved successfully the universal citizenship for Ecuador. Nevertheless, at the moment the assemblymen have approved two laws: the Law of tributary equity and the Law for the recovery of the use of the petroleum resources of the State. This latter, according to the specialists, would disdain the role that the mining industry has in the national economy. So, in the following 60 days of extension, they will continue carry on discussions about the issues related to the new Ecuadorian Constitution.

In Latin America it is common that the elected president, without majority in the congress, appeals to the way of the national assembly. This one, also, has often ended in an authoritarian regime. In this sense, an article published on May 8 in The Economist has suggested that Ecuador is following the way pioneered by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela: gain an election, win a referendum, call for Constituent Assembly and, after having the absolute majority, concentrate the power in the State with the new Constitution.

Will Ecuador follow this way? Though history is not written, and as we have seen the country is in transition, the possibility that Rafael Correa follows this path is strong because of his absolute majority in the Assembly. In addition, he has continued kept on using a speech of confrontation that is similar to the rhetoric of the Venezuelan president.

An example of this is his attack to the "traditional" political parties. In Ecuador these have disappeared, but he has called to his opposition "partidocracy", accusing them of the crises lived in the country. Consequently, the danger of following the authoritarian way is strong when he seems intransigent to the opposition and his detractors. In this way, Rafael Correa, in his speech to the Assembly for the first finished year on January 17 of 2008 stated: "In spite of the boycott orchestrated by the partidocracy sealed off in the Congress and the opposition campaign of the powerful groups, we achieve the summons to the Popular Consultation for the conformation of the Assembly, where with a crushing 82% people said yes to the future with firmness".

However, the political leaders, the assemblymen and the citizens are aware that Ecuador needs a new "Social Contract" in order to avoid the lack of stability that has been happening in the country since the return to democracy in 1978. Therefore, only a consensus for the democratic stability and a strongly organized opposition can take away the country of the future authoritarian path.

In the dawn of March 1st of 2008 Colombia made an attack in Ecuadorian territory against a camp of the FARC and, as a consequence, Raúl Reyes, an important leader of the guerrilla, and other seventeen guerrillas died. Thus, president Correa accused Álvaro Uribe, the president of Colombia, and his government of having invaded illegally the territorial sovereignty of his country.

In response to this action, Ecuador and Venezuela broke their ties relations with Colombia on March 3rd and mobilized troops towards its respective frontiers. Álvaro Uribe argued that his government was not looking for a conflict with Ecuador, instead that wanted to attack the camp of the FARC that was operating against Colombia from there. In addition, he said that certain documents were seized in the operation which related the governments of Ecuador and Venezuela with (the) FARC. Yet, this was denied incisively by both of them.

After those incidents they summated an agreement of peace in the Group of Rio on March 7, where the presidents Álvaro Uribe, after asking giving excuses and of having admitted to violate the territorial Ecuadorian sovereignty, as well as Rafael Correa, it would be seen as a symbol that the diplomatic conflict had ended. However, the relations between both countries have not been reactivated; since the Ecuadorian president declared that this would take time.

Hereby, in spite of the fact that the diplomatic conflict on the FARC has finished the relations between both of them have still been tense. Even more when the INTERPOL published on May 16 its expert's report on the analysis of the objects seized in the military operative, concluding that there was evidence of narrow relations between the FARC and the governments of Venezuela and Ecuador.

Because of this Rafael Correa has asked the district attorney's office of his country to investigate his supposed link with the Colombian guerrilla and, in the same way, he has mentioned that the president Uribe realizes a "campaign of loss of prestige" towards Ecuador. On the other hand, Hugo Chavez has also denied the accusations calling the “international and ignoble vagabond” to the secretary of INTERPOL. Besides, he highlighted that his contact with the guerrilla was done by a simple humanitarian exchange of hostages.

In conclusion, the conflict has demonstrated a diplomatic delicate situation not only between Ecuador and Colombia, but also with Venezuela. Therefore, the closeness between Rafael Correa and Hugo Chavez seems to be narrower than it is. So, beyond the accusations of supposed connections with the FARC, both countries are developing a political and economic alliance.

In this way, Ecuador has extended recently its exportation to Venezuela from 2 to 54 products in food and drinks, which estimates a possible sale of 64 million dollars in only one year. Besides, in July the president Hugo Chavez will visit Ecuador for the beginning of the construction of a refinery of oil, in which PetroEcuador has 51% of shares, which will produce 300 thousand barrels per day. Hereby, the alliance and friendship economic relationship between Correa and Chavez seems to be consolidated, even more when both are the only Latin-American members of the OPEC.

Ecuador is an unstable country that is currently facing a transition because of the National Assembly. Nevertheless, it risks ending in an authoritarian process, due to the fact that Rafael Correa possesses absolute majority and attacks his political opponents. Moreover, immediately after the conflict with Colombia his closeness to Hugo Chavez has become stronger, which not only has been demonstrated in the political and diplomatic support, but also in its increasing economic cooperation.