I'll be going over this thing myself in the next few days (all 110 pages..bleh!) but from what I've read so far, I concur with Otto. Benign is a good way to put it. It might open the door for some challenges from the greens (what else is new?) but the ISO certification is a really good idea which should blunt any such attack. I missed that detail on the first read-through - thanks Otto, for pointing that out.

I still maintain however (and I probably won't get a lot of thumbs up for this) that the really critical issue is the referendum, which seems almost certain to fail. I'm sure that's what the market is pricing, so I don't expect a big pop when the mining law is finally enacted. I'd really like to be wrong on this point, but my instincts tell me otherwise.

Try as I might, I just can't get a fix on where this goes if the referendum fails. You just don't hear much from the opposition - they seem to be standing aside - probably so they aren't accused of bringing down a fairly popular movement.

The disappointment comes through clearly in the editorials though, and more importantly, in the letters to the editor which I make a point of reading. The frustration and discontent comes mainly from inside - from people who voted yes to Correa, and later to the Assembly. Disillusionment is not too strong a word here. To put it bluntly, these people are really pissed off.

What comes next is uncertain, and as we all know, markets hate uncertainty. I doubt AP can survive with a majority, so the real question is who will form the next govt.? It's a question I'm looking at closely and will report on when I have something concrete.

My one hope is that whoever comes next, they have the good sense to let this mining law stand. No doubt there will be some issues, but IMO, it's better than the old law because it does more to protect the environment. A lot of what this govt. has done won't stand, of that I have no doubt. But a good law should be retained, regardless of its author. That's a fundamental principle of good government.

ebear