An interesting recent poll from polster Santiago Nieto
extracted from the original El Comercio article here:

http://tinyurl.com/6mt2q3

Approve of Correa's management?
Quito 65% yes
Guayaquil 49% yes

Are things better this year than last?
18% agree. Last year was 40%

Will things improve in 2009?
Quito 36% yes
Guayaquil 20% yes

Assembly better than former Parliament?
Quito 46% yes
Guayaquil 35% yes

Assembly equal to or worse than the Congress?
Quito 55% yes
Guayaquil 65% yes

Support for mining?
Quito 82% yes
Guayaquil 80% yes.
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These last numbers are pretty amazing considering the amount of anti-mining rhetoric the nation's been hearing. Are they fed up and registering their annoyance, have they thought through the issue, or is this a rejection of the position of Conaie? Probably a bit of each, but the number is very encouraging.

Continuing to read between the lines, I asked myself today "why would you want to extend the franchise to 16 and 17 year-olds?" (see my previous post). The answer is obvious when you think about it. Where are the largest families? Urban or Rural? Where is the greatest support for AP? Urban or Rural? Where is the greatest number of people? Urban or Rural?

It's safe to assume that the average 16 year old is going to follow dad's advice and vote the family line, so I think what you're seeing here is an attempt to gerymander the next election. This somewhat desperate move suggests that AP is not confident they'll keep their majority. I may be reading too much into this, but what other reason could there be for such an obviously foolish idea? (except that these people are a veritable fountain of foolish ideas, so maybe there's no reason here at all?)

Anyway, whatever this mining draft looks like, if it doesn't produce the expected outcome (return of investor confidence/ return of workers to their jobs) there's going to be hell to pay.

There may be hell to pay already. If the press is accurately reflecting public opinion, then the people, for a variety of reasons not the least of which is rising prices, are fed up with the Assembly and ready to punt. The best case outcome? A weakened AP forced to negotiate with the opposition, which potentially would be supportive of Correa. He'd need them to make things work, so we'd get moderation and a little more professionalism as a result. We'd also get screeching accusations of betrayal and public unrest, but that is easier to deal with if you're no longer courting those votes. Correa's already cut Conaie loose. Whose next?

There's an old saying in L.A. politics: "The pendulum swings both ways." In the past, this tended to happen across generations, but now, with everything speeded up thanks to the internet, the process may only take a few months.

ebear