I haven't had time to translate all the articles that have appeared on this subject, so here's my summary, with comments on how I think it will play out.

CONAIE is threatening another indigenous uprising if they don't get a veto on resource development in the areas they control, which of course is where most of the oil and minerals are. I say "another" because indigenous uprisings have brought down two previous presidents in the last 10 years, so the threat is real. The issue centers on the difference between "consult" and "consent." Consult meaning we'll consult with the local population, but the final say belongs to the govt., consent meaning the locals should have the final word.

Battle lines have been drawn and the first shots have been fired. Marion Santi, leader of CONAIE accuses Correa of being a Neoliberal [catch-phrase for everything that's wrong with the world] and says his 21st Century Socialism is a lie. Correa for his part, warns that he'd rather go home (resign) than allow CONAIE to impose its agenda, and accuses them of playing to the right. He insists on govt. control of resource development for the good of all Ecuadoreans.

OK, now my comments.

CONAIE is powerful, but doesn't represent everyone in the indigenous community, as we've seen from declarations made by some of the Shuar people over the last year. Their support appears to have dropped lately, and the fact that Santi denies his intention is to bring down the govt. speaks to that. People are getting tired of this tactic and it may backfire on them this time. Correa knows this, and will play that card if forced to. As president, he acts on behalf of all Ecuadoreans, not some special interest group.

I recently drew attention to the Bolivian situation because of the parallels to Ecuador. Now it shows more clearly. The struggle has evolved from a confrontation with the old order that united broad sections of the population, to a struggle between indigenous groups and their version of socialism vs everyone elses'. You can't paint this as class struggle anymore. What you have now is a struggle between two very different versions of Democracy and Socialism. One based on indigenous values, the other on urban working and middle class expectations.

Does Ecuador develop its resources and leverage that advantage to bring employment and education to the nation as a whole, or does it continue down the same old path of devisive regional and ethnic self-interests? That's the pressing question facing Ecuador right now. That's what the struggle is really about.

ebear