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Message: Re: People are catching on...
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May 04, 2008 06:16AM

I'm no specialist in latin american politics, but I believe Correa came to power on the coat tails of the indiginous people.

That's partly true, but it's not the whole story. Correa's victory was as much a result of regional political divisions which forced a runoff, as no candidate emerged with a clear majority.

Faced with a choice between Noboa and Correa in the runoff, many who voted for third candidates chose Correa simply to avoid handing Noboa a victory. That was the case in Zamora-Chinchipe, where 32.59% of votes went to Gilmar Guitierrez and only 20.66% to Correa. Noboa trailed third with 18.1%. In the runoff, Correa won Z-C with 64.38%, which was above the national average of 57.05%.

For a complete breakdown of the election results by region and candidate visit this site:

http://tinyurl.com/5t8kjv

The maps are very instructive. Notice the wide support for Noboa in the coastal lowlands. Also note that support for Correa was not as great in the Amazon as you'd expect using a purely Indigenous model. They have their own candidates out there - not everyone supports Correa.

The most instructive map is the last one, which shows the breakdown by region of all the candidates. Note the wide support for Guitierrez, especially in the Amazon regions. In fact, Gutiererrez was the winner nearly everywhere outside the coastal lowlands and urban areas.

Certainly not the rich or banana tycoons. And now, he has even turned the indiginous against him. He needs mining to fund any improvements to the country. Taking away their good jobs is a big step backwards and unless corrected quickly, we'll see how impatient the Ecuadorians are in their politics. As we saw earlier, some presidnets lasted a mere 3 days.

In one of those ironies of Latin American politics, it was indeed the Banana People who guaranteed Correa's victory. By stubbornly backing Noboa, instead of throwing their vote to Guitierrez who had wider regional support, they all but guaranteed a Correa victory.

One thing to bear in mind. Correa came to power in a runoff with 57% of the popular vote. Hardly a landslide. The majority of the nation didn't want him, which you can clearly see from the first round results.

ebear
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May 04, 2008 01:04PM
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