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Been chasing the idea of downward averaging since I purchased at a much higher rate.
I know ARU's NAV is much much higher even with the political risk and such. Markets tend to get very skittish over uncertainly, a fact that many investors know.
Now that it's a very great possibility that FDN will not be taken away.. I can breathe somewhat easier. Yet I don't trust Correa... I want him to say it publicly and have Aru get it in writing.
Even with a tax grab of 50 to 70% Aru will be profitable. I just hope el Presidente does not feel that they owe all of it and proclaim the area Protected. He could put it up for a bid later and be a hero to his people having saved Ecuador from economic collapse by selling to the highest bidder.
That would be a nightmare.. I'd care not to think about.
My belief is that Correa will see what impact his law is having, he will make a counter to appease the masses (he is a politician), and that the share price will slowly inch it's way back to $6+ . The next large jump will be in the next find or the cutoff point will be raised.
I expect ARU to find more oz. And if they do... Obviously this is good news, yet Correa may have other plans since he knows how valuable this property is..
To take away so many jobs from the people of Ecuador for 6 months, is unconscionable. That's simply a stalling tactic in order to get his act together and to see who is willing to pay for what.
Can you image a country shutting down it's hospitals so that a new medical bill can be created? You don't shut down a promising developing industry just so you can work out the details!
Enought.... Sorry for the Rant...I feel better
Long and Strong
GP