· Step Five – The people of Ecuador vote on a new Congress – “October 2008 - Mining Law by year-end 2008” - If the draft Constitution is approved, we believe the people of Ecuador will vote in favour of the new Constitution and return Correa to power in a Congressional election.

This govt. has made some big changes in a very short time. No doubt they felt they had to proceed that way, but they've alientated a fair number of people in the process. It remains to be seen what sort of campaign the opposition can mount and whether or not it breaks down along regional lines, or if they can put aside those divisions and mount a truly national campaign. It's always tricky calling elections, but I'd expect a Correa win, but with a minority govt. and some sort of coalition of the center. They need to slow things down a bit to absorb all these changes and make the necessary adjustments. Businesses need stability in order to make long range plans. That should be the theme of the next govt.. Stability and consolidation of gains.

I think the govts. response to the flood is going to have a big effect on the outcome. True, a lot of the flooding was a result of previous neglect that had nothing to do with the current govt. but of course people don't see that. When something goes wrong, they look for someone to blame, and a ballot is one way to express that displeasure.

Interesting times.

ebear