I'm going to take my claws out of this tree trunk for a moment and go out on a limb.    

I think the whole package, plus Ecuacorriente, gets taken out by VBMC (Very Big Mining Company).  RTP & BHP are busy outmaneuvering each other, so I'll say CVRD, or as they're now known, VALE.  Smart move changing the name, BTW.  I speak some Portuguese, and trust me, CVRD's full name is a mouthful.  It translates as Sweet River Valley Company, so Vale obviously means Valley, but there's more to it than that.  In Spanish, Vale means worth, or value.  When you are in agreement with something, you say Vale!  So the name is rich in meaning and tells you something about their intentions.

I know I'm digressing here, but bear with me.

We've heard a lot in recent years about a Bolivaran Revolution.  There are any number of interpretations of that phrase, but the underlying premise is unity of cause and principle amongst Latin American peoples and nations.  Certainly the subject of much controversy and numerous political struggles (as we well know) but the overarching intent is respect of national and individual sovereignty, and peaceful cooperation between the nations of the south.

High ideals aside, it will never get off the ground without a sound economic base, and that can't happen without the full participation of the private sector.  Fortunately, all the basic elements are present:  food, energy, minerals, land, water, people - it's all there.  We've also heard talk lately of a Bank of the South, a common market, and a common currency.   This idea is on a lot of people's minds right now, and while it's still just an idea, some sort of clear impetus could get it rolling fairly quickly.

Vale isn't just a mining company.  They operate ports, railways and electric plants.  In effect, they are an infrastructure company, and what does South America need to get this plan rolling?  Infrastructure.  Lots of it.

Now, from an Ecuadorian perspective, what they need - what Correa needs - is a fait acompli.  Something they can take to the nation and say, see?  We have a plan.  It will work, and it's moving forward as of NOW.   They've already made a mess of the oil sector (they can fix that later) so they can't afford to drop the ball on mining.  But if you go at it piecemeal, one contract here, another contract there, this commitee, that little village, those special interests, that NGO... you just end up spinning your wheels.  What they need is an overarching commercial relationship with a company big enough to get a lot of things started right away.  Mines, roads, railways, seaports, airports, etc etc.  So, who down there has the scale and diversity to do it?  Vale.  It's a perfect fit.

So, where does that leave Aurelian?  Well, with a generous offer (we can't refuse..LOL) for the whole package, and perhaps a chance to stay on as a partner.  And the gold?  It goes to the Ecuadorian Treasury.  It has to.  If they keep the dollar they are going to crash and burn like Argentina, and if they move to a common currency they will need something to point at and say, see?  Vale!

OK, that's my grand vision.  It took a lot of thought and much chewing of the coca to come up with that.  Is it realistic?  Could it actually work?  Who knows?  It's what I'd like to see.  It could set a precedent.  Other nations might look at Ecuador and say, see?  They have a plan that works, and it includes everyone!  Why don't we have one of those?

I know this runs contrary to some of the things I've said, and I may yet be disappointed.  In fact, I recently told someone important to me that we wouldn't be staying once Aurelian was sold - that we'd cancelled our plans to continue investing in Ecuador because of all the instability and uncertainty.  Part of that decision has to do with my wife who is becoming a nervous wreck, and frankly I'm not in much better shape at this point.  This is a lot of money for us, and to have it slip through our fingers, while not a complete disaster, would definitely have a major impact on our lives.  We're not too old that we couldn't recover, but this last year has been a real strain, believe me.  So I'll just close this very long-winded post by saying that if something along these lines comes to pass, and if the people of Ecuador can get behind the plan and give Correa and his govt the support they need, then we'd seriously reconsider our decision.

As for a price and a time-line?  Who knows, but the sooner the better IMO.  I'll just go with the consensus and say 20-40 bucks, since I'm in no position to really make that call.  I'm just a little bear up in a tree, and trust me, my paws are getting very tired from hanging around up here!

ebear